Many goods that South Africa sends to the US are now subject to a 30% import tariff, even as Pretoria protested that its average tariff was just 7.6%.
Governments, including South Africa, are taking a hard look at their options, even as they try to navigate the tariffs. But if the new rules stay, as some argue they may, what could this mean for jobs, prices and everyday life in South Africa?
We asked economists, trade analysts and industry experts to find out where and when South Africans are likely to feel the pain.
The bottom line: What the tariffs mean for you
1: Expect higher prices – many goods could cost more, especially food, cars and items with imported parts. But, perhaps unexpectedly, other goods may be cheaper.
2: Prepare for job market uncertainty as affected industries under pressure may cut staff or slow hiring.
3: Budget for economic instability as supply chains and the rand wobble, making life less predictable.
4: Plan for persistent inflation that could steadily erode purchasing power, squeezing household budgets.
The immediate hit: some items in your shopping basket become more expensive (and some less)
“We need to firstly understand that the 30% import tariffs will be paid by the US consumers on South African goods, but the price mark-up will be felt in South Africa,” Jannie Rossouw, professor of economics at the Wits Business School, told Africa Check.
“The most visible effects of the tariffs will be felt almost immediately in the prices of imported goods,” Grant Son, an expert in governance and public sector reform, told Africa Check.
Parliament’s trade committee has warned that the tariffs will affect several key sectors in South Africa, including automotives, agriculture and steel.
Wine, citrus, nuts, cars and machinery – all tied closely to US trade – are especially vulnerable.
But not all analysts see the impact in the same way. Prof Peter Baur of the University of Johannesburg argued that the impact might cut both ways: “The global economy has been affected, and as such other international players will possibly seek new markets, especially amongst the emerging economies, including South Africa.
“If anything, it possibly may affect local producers who may be faced with higher levels of competition, and this may have a downward impact on prices or increased pressure on unemployment.”
The rand comes under pressure
Currency markets reacted quickly to trade shocks, said Son. He explained how it worked: tariffs would make South African goods more expensive for US buyers, reducing demand for our exports and decreasing the inflow of US dollars. As dollar supply fell, the rand would weaken.
Financial expert and author Sylvia Walker told Africa Check that the blow could be softened if the US dollar itself weakened, since the tariffs targeted multiple countries.
However, “if the rand weakens, it means that imports are more expensive which will have a knock-on effect on prices, particularly those that use imported components”, Walker said.
That included fuel and machinery, which could push up production costs for South African businesses and ultimately prices for consumers.
A weaker rand also makes it harder for retailers to source and stock a wider variety of imported goods.
Research from the International Monetary Fund in 2024 showed that sub-Saharan African countries were especially vulnerable to these kinds of exchange rate shocks, with currency depreciations feeding more directly into domestic price increases than in many other regions.
The human cost: jobs on the line
The most direct impact would be felt in the workplace. Experts said when orders fell and profit margins shrunk, employers cut costs quickly, and labour was usually the first target, whether through slower hiring or outright job cuts.
Rossouw said the department of trade estimated at least 30 000 jobs were immediately at risk, with South African Reserve Bank (SARB) governor Lesetja Kganyago suggesting the number could reach 100 000.
“These job losses will be very serious in the South African economy, because we have a very serious unemployment problem,” he said.
The official unemployment rate is 33.2%, rising to 42.9% when jobseekers who have given up searching are included.
Son said the 30 000 figure was an “alarming baseline” but that the real number could be much higher. That’s because the estimate likely covers only direct exporters. Suppliers to the affected industries, such as car component makers, packaging and logistic firms could also see orders collapse, forcing them to retrench.
The ripple effects don’t stop there. Unemployed workers spend less at shops and service businesses, which also struggle and may cut staff. Economists call this the “multiplier effect”, in this case where one lost job triggers more losses across the economy.
The sectors most exposed to the tariffs employ millions: 906 000 in agriculture, 434 000 in mining and 1.67-million in manufacturing. Many of these jobs are in rural areas and small towns where alternatives are scarce.
Supply chains start breaking down
Experts said supply chain shocks could emerge in the coming months, in some instances causing more disruption than the immediate price increases.
South Africa’s manufacturing capacity depends on complex supply chains, some of which run through the US. In 2023, 43% of exports to the US were manufactured goods, mainly cars and their components. Mining commodities, many of which were exempted from the tariffs, made up 50%, with the rest being agricultural products.
Xolelwa Mlumbi-Peter, deputy director at the Department of Trade, Industry and Competition and ambassador to the World Trade Organization, acknowledged that the tariffs would hurt manufacturing capacity.
Son said the tariffs “will necessitate a complete re-evaluation of supply chains”.
As South African exporters hunt for new markets, some products could disappear temporarily from shelves, while others become more expensive. But there could also be oversupply in others.
The trade department said it was accelerating efforts to diversify export markets, particularly to Asia and other parts of Africa. Son said while this was a strategic response, it was also a slow and costly process.
If South African producers cannot find new markets quickly enough, they may scale back production altogether.
The government said it was setting up support measures for vulnerable companies.
But according to Prof Peter Baur of the University of Johannesburg, such support should extend beyond the businesses directly affected by the tariffs to include the broader network of related and supporting industries.
He warned: “However, it may result in funding being redirected from the taxbase away from other critical sectors such as health, education and social support.”
The medium-term squeeze: inflation
By June 2025, inflation had crept up to 3% from 2.8% in May. At the reserve bank’s annual meeting of shareholders on 8 August, governor Kganyago said it was “now increasingly clear that tariffs will settle at high rates”.
He cited research from the non-partisan Budget Lab at Yale, which calculated the effective tariff rate for US consumers as of August at 18.3%, the highest since 1934. Unlike headline figures, the effective rate helps to show the real burden of tariffs across an economy.
“This implies significant price pressures that will have to be absorbed somewhere in the system,” Kganyago said, amid a risk of imported inflation.
For ordinary South Africans, this means the cost of food, transport and household essentials could keep rising faster than wages, steadily eroding what your salary can actually buy.
The reserve bank would then be in a tough position, analysts said.
Son said the bank could raise interest rates in an attempt to control inflation if the consumer price index went above its target range.
“This would make borrowing more expensive, slowing economic activity and dampening consumer demand. While this could contain inflation, it would also intensify the negative economic shock from the tariffs, potentially slowing growth further.”
Another option would be to hold rates, with the SARB “looking through” the inflation spike and treating it as temporary. However, if the rand remains weak, prolonged higher inflation could damage the bank’s credibility.
Walker agreed the bank would likely raise rates if inflation ran too high.
However, Baur said that the likelihood of inflation would depend on how South Africa managed the wider trade uncertainties.
Either way, ordinary South Africans will feel the pinch – whether through higher prices, higher interest rates, or both.
Longer term impact
Over the longer term, if steep tariffs on South African goods remain in place, the effects will stretch far beyond the initial shock. Trade flows could shift, key industries may be reshaped, and government finances will feel the strain.
But they could also have long-term consequences for ordinary citizens’ household budgets and livelihoods.
The scale of this will only be apparent with time, analysts say.
Baur said: “It's possible that US businesses will also apply pressure to the US authorities. I don’t think that this is the end in any way, but I do anticipate an ongoing long term negotiation process that will be in effect until some form of new equilibrium is established. We should not underestimate the negative impact on the US consumer.”
He added: “Trade is a multi-layered perspective, involving political, social and economic variables and a lot depends on South African policy development to pull us through.”
In the meantime, South Africans should brace themselves for increased economic uncertainty.
What is certain is that the effects of global trade wars will filter down into local shops, family budgets and job markets. For South Africans, the challenge will be to adapt while hoping diplomacy can blunt the worst of the damage.
