JOHANNESBURG (miningweekly.com) – Platinum group metals (PGM) mining, refining and marketing company Valterra, which last week reported sharply rising earnings expectations for 2025, has delivered its strongest quarterly performance of the year in the three months to December 31.

The Johannesburg- and London-listed company, headed by CEO Craig Miller, on Thursday, February 5, reported increased production across all major PGM metrics.

Full-year PGM sales volumes of 3 454 300 oz were driven by higher above-guidance refined production of 3 412 000 oz.

The 2026 metal-in-concentrate and refined production guidance of three-million ounces to 3.4-million ounces is consistent with prior estimates.

Own-mined production increased by 1% to 594 600 oz on higher production from the Amandelbult mine, partially offset by lower production at the Mogalakwena, Unki and Mototolo mines.

Toll-refined PGM production increased by 41% to 257 300 PGM ounces, primarily owing to the inclusion of Kroondal as toll-refined production from December 2024.

Nickel production increased by 12% to 7 098 t, while copper production decreased by 2% to 4 413 t.

Quarter-on-quarter nickel production increased by 14% and quarter-on-quarter copper production increased by 5%.

Total fourth-quarter chrome production increased by 17% to 298 000 t on higher chrome production at Amandelbult and improvements in chrome yields across Valterra’s own operations.

Increased PGM sales volumes and realised basket price PGM sales volumes increased by 4% to 1 042 100 oz, supported by the timing of some sales rolling over from the previous quarter into October, together with higher volumes of minor PGMs sold.

The average realised fourth-quarter basket price of R38 723 per PGM ounce, or $2 269 per PGM ounce, was the highest since the fourth quarter of 2022 and up 41% and 50% year-on-year respectively.

All PGMs, except iridium, contributed substantial year-on-year gains, with platinum 78% higher and rhodium 70% higher.

The broad-based price rally that began in May gained further momentum during the final quarter on rising investor interest in physical assets, the launch of new futures contracts in China and ongoing market tightness. The average realised full-year rand PGM basket price of R32 611 per PGM ounce increased by 22%, while the dollar PGM basket price of $1 852 per PGM ounce increased by 26% year-on-year.

Valterra smelts and refines PGMs and associated co-products from its South African and Zimbabwean operations and has integrated value chain bolstered by marketing hubs in London, Singapore and Shanghai.

As reported by Mining Weekly in December, Valterra’s market capitalisation has sky-rocketed to north of R300-billion and the company is continuing to look for new markets into which it can invest and which can utilise its products. The utilisation of PGMs in cleaner mobility is being expanded by fuel cell electric vehicle development, battery electric vehicle advances and more recently, in technological applications such as data storage and electronic chips.

Fourth-quarter production delivered the strongest quarterly performance of 2025, increasing by 10% quarter-on-quarter owing to Amandelbult's return to steady-state operations and improved output at Mogalakwena.

Mogalakwena's PGM production decreased by 8% to 260 800 oz, despite higher tonnes milled, owing to a lower built-up head grade compared with the fourth quarter of 2024.

On a quarter-on-quarter basis, own-mined production increased by 10%, reflecting Amandelbult's return to steady-state production for the first full quarter following the February 2025 flooding. Full-year own-mined PGM production exceeded guidance at 2 060 300 oz amid total full-year PGM production hitting the 3 200 600-oz mark.

Expressed as five element gold-containing metal-in-concentrate, total fourth-quarter PGM production increased by 1% to 880 200 oz driven by the increase in own-mined volume.

Increased own-mined output was helped by the return of Amandelbult PGM to steady-state operation as well as higher grades emerging from the flagship Mogalakwena mine.

The production from these two mines supported increased refined throughput and PGM sales in a considerably higher price environment.

“With safety performance also continuing to improve, we remain focused on our ongoing drive to optimise working capital and enhance processing stability,” Miller stated in a stock exchange news service announcement.

Miller described fourth-quarter performance as being reflective of a business operating with confidence and consistency and delivering on its strategy of building a stable, competitive and profitable long-term PGM business.

More performance insights will be shared when annual results are released on February 25.

The zero-fatality fourth quarter reflected a 26% improvement in the total recordable injury frequency rate to 1.42 per million hours at own operations.

Own-mined PGM production was strong over the quarter, increasing by 1% to 594 600 oz compared to the prior period.

Fourth-quarter purchase of PGM concentrate decreased by 1% on the prior period to 285 600 oz taking full-year purchase-of-concentrate PGM production to 1 140 300 oz.

Refined PGM production, excluding tolling, increased by 1% on the prior period, and 6% from the previous quarter to 1 039 400 oz owing to higher metal-in-concentrate production and the release of work-in-progress inventory.

PGM sales volumes for the quarter increased by 4% to 1 042 100 oz, supported by the rollover of some sales from the previous quarter into October and increased sales volumes of minor PGMs.

Quarter-on-quarter production increased by 16%, supported by an 11% improvement in grade to 2.71 g/t and an 87% increase in full-grade ore tonnes mined to 4.7 million tonnes.

Mogalakwena produced 948 000 oz for the year, reflecting the continued delivery of tangible results from the implementation of operational excellence initiatives. These include pit optimisation work, improved concentrator throughput, reduced mass pull, as well as the benefits of processing low-grade ore stockpiles.

At the Sandsloot underground project, 3.2 km of development was completed during 2025, with progress further supported by the successful completion of the ventilation main pass. The year ended with a 80 000 t bulk ore sample stockpile, which is expected to be processed in 2026 to support the completion of the feasibility study.

Amandelbult PGM production recovered significantly in the fourth quarter, with a 14% quarter-on-quarter increase driven by the return of Tumela mine to steady-state operations. Full-year production exceeded guidance at 483 600 oz as a result of comprehensive execution of the restoration plan following the February 2025 flooding.

Mototolo's PGM production was impacted by the development work supporting the advancement of the Der Brochen project, which is progressing steadily, with all development ends successfully intersecting the reef after navigating the weathered zone. A higher proportion of development tonnes mined compared to the prior period diluted the overall mined grade, leading to a 4% decline in production to 71 000 oz. As anticipated, production was further impacted by complex geological features at both Borwa and Lebowa shafts.

Unki's PGM production declined by 9% to 54 700 PGM ounces, driven by the continued mining of lower-grade ore blocks and concentrator throughput disruptions resulting from power and plant instabilities.

PGM production at the half-owned Modikwa mine increased by 1% to 33 600 oz owing to higher tonnes milled.

Purchase-of-concentrate volumes decreased by 1% to 285 600 oz, primarily owing to lower receipts from third parties, while non-tolled refined PGM production rose by the same percentage to 1 039 400 oz on higher metal-in-concentrate production. Refined output exceeded metal-in-concentrate mined and purchased, supported by solid processing performance and sustained improvements in the stability and reliability of the processing infrastructure, which enabled the optimisation of work-in-progress inventory.

Refined production, which has historically been lower in the first quarter, is expected to be more evenly distributed throughout this year following the re-phasing of the annual stock counts and scheduled processing maintenance.

A trading statement for the 12 months to December 31 on January 23 raised the expectation that Valterra’s headline earnings and headline earnings a share are expected to increase by between 85% and 105% compared with the corresponding period of last year.

The expectation is that headline earnings are likely to be between R15.6-billion and R17.3-billion compared with R8.4-billion in 2024 and headline earnings a share are expected to be between 5 941c a share and 6 588c a share compared with 3 205c a share in the prior period.

Basic earnings and earnings a share for the 12 months to December 31 are expected to have increased by between 105% and 125% and basic earnings are likely to be between R14.5-billion and R15.9-billion.

A 26% stronger PGMs dollar basket price of $1 852 per PGM ounce has boosted earnings as well as operational costs being cut by R5-billion, which more than offsets the impact of inflation and R1.7-billion one-off demerger-related costs.

It is keeping abreast of how the market is not only shaped by supply and demand, but also by financial flows and sentiment, and right now, the dynamics also point to a much tighter market, which could continue to see prices at the current higher levels for longer.