A futures thinking and anticipatory governance approach to growing global mistrust and declining multilateralism can promote robust and resilient solutions.

In a move towards overcoming growing global mistrust and declining multilateralism, the United Nations is convening a Summit of the Future for heads of states to unite on a new international consensus.  

Expected outcomes from the summit on 22 to 23 September include a Pact for the Future comprising a Global Digital Compact and a Declaration on Future Generations. This seminal event is a sign that the world’s leaders and UN member countries acknowledge responsibilities to address shared global issues and concerns, and recognise there is a need for expanded international cooperation on collective matters for the long-term. 

There are aligned efforts to organise and ensure the inclusion and participation of young people in policy dialogue forums contributing to setting the priorities and agenda for the summit and its associated commitments. 

In considering youth voices, a highlighted group is future generations. The case made is that future generations, including the unborn, must be considered given the long-term nature and reach of current global issues. Responsible leadership and governance, effective multilateralism and international institutions inclusive of diverse multi-stakeholders require an intergenerational lens that appreciates accountability to future generations. 

There is an imperative to ensure sustainable solutions in current efforts to reform and revitalise multilateralism and international institutions, and to ensure lasting relevance and resilience in the face of ongoing global shifts and systemic change.

It is projected that most future generations will emerge from the Global South and current emerging economies, based on data forecasts from contemporary demographics including large populations in China and India and large youth populations on the African continent. At the same time, data illustrates generally, youth populations in these regions in the Global South suffer disproportionate consequences as a result of unequal levels of development, limited access to opportunities such as relevant education, skills building and decent jobs among other obstacles. Data also shows that youth are underrepresented in decision-making, policy and strategy structures from local to national, regional and international levels.

The call is for reform initiatives and priorities to create contextually appropriate spaces and approaches for meaningful youth and children involvement and contributions. Implications of this range from the protection of fundamental human rights for all children and youth to suitable representation and appropriate inclusion of children and youth issues and diverse voices in policy and decision-making processes, and empowering the agency of youth and children as part of implementation actions.

But there are conceptual complexities in terms of how to, and who should represent the voice of future generations including the not yet born, and what requirements are for securing long term intergenerational accountability in terms of operational and functional institutional mechanisms. It is worthwhile here to consider the value of foresight and futures thinking and the role of anticipatory governance approaches. 

Foresight and futures thinking offer tools and methodologies to assist policymakers to consider future conditions and what required responses may be in terms of actions today and preparedness for future eventualities. Anticipatory governance is a systems-based approach for enabling governance in contexts of complexity and uncertainty. 

Foresight and anticipatory governance can help map out possible futures pathways, allow decision-makers to rigorously think through system-wide implications of decision and policymaking options, as well as facilitate strategic planning in terms of short-, medium- and long-term responses, including monitoring, review and adjustment to shifting conditions as needed. 

Futures thinking and anticipatory governance promote agile, adaptable, and flexible policy and strategy frameworks, processes and implementation mechanisms. This contributes to more robust and resilient long-term policy and strategy, responsive to dynamic shifts and changes in external environments, from political and economic uncertainty to social and environmental instability, as well as technological disruptions.

The assumption is that in considering what long-term future conditions may look like and the required system-wide adaptive responses, the interests of the unborn and future generations are taken into account and centred. Foresight and anticipatory governance approaches can also address issues of succession, which are important when discussing intergenerational responsibility and accountability. 

The imperative is to overcome a short-term orientation aligned with limited leadership terms or campaign periods, recognising there is a need for commitments on long-term issues. These commitments need to stand and remain prioritised across successive leadership terms, regimes and organisational institutional strategy and policy periods. 

It is also important to balance trade-offs and tensions between and across generations. There may be issues whose solutions are relevant for people now that may worsen conditions for future generations. Additionally, over the long term, large youth numbers today will add to large ageing populations in the future. As such, considering future generations and the intergenerational discourse is not only about youth and the unborn, but also about the longevity of a growing older population and preparing for senior citizens in the future.

The role of values is essential here and it is critical to ensure that requisite value systems are in place at leadership levels, and systemically embedded across systems, institutions and processes as an integral component. The main duty is to hand over the baton of responsibility and accountability from generation to generation with confidence that each has done the best possible to preserve collective heritage and a planetary inheritance that is secure, sustainable and prosperous.

While there is growing momentum to improve multilateralism, international cooperation and global governance, uncertainty remains as to whether commitments will be sufficient and substantive enough to ensure accruement of widespread and long-term collective benefits. The world is severely divided across many issues. 

Perhaps considering future generations can offer hope. In looking forward to future generations using foresight and anticipatory governance, there is yet an opportunity to reshape the present to ensure better futures for ourselves and those to come. 

Research by Njeri Mwagiru, South African Institute of International Affairs

This article was first published in the Mail & Guardian.