In his books Sowing the Mustard Seed (published in 1997) and What Is Africa’s Problem? (2000), Museveni condemned leaders who overstayed in power.

Now nearly four decades into his rule, Uganda’s promised democratic renewal has been replaced by increasingly autocratic governance. Once the liberator, Museveni has become the strongman, overseeing a deeply repressive system. Political opposition, civil society and ordinary citizens have faced growing human rights violations, violence and intimidation. This is particularly targeted at young people and political dissidents.

In the run-up to Uganda’s 2026 elections, political repression has intensified. Young people, under the leadership of opposition figure Robert Kyagulanyi (popularly known as Bobi Wine), are at the centre of a growing struggle for freedom and democracy. And they are increasingly the targets of state violence.

I teach and research political repression and human rights. My work emphasises the importance of strengthening ethical and democratic leadership and governance. This enables sustainable peace, justice, development and human security to take root.

I have also argued that young people around the world can help save democracy – if they are supported. This is particularly the case in Uganda, which has one of the youngest populations in the world.

This support should come from the African Union (AU) in the first instance. Its peace and security council should make it clear to Museveni that he has obligations to respect people’s rights and freedoms. There is also a need for a standby military force from the AU and/or the UN to protect Ugandans against bloodshed.

The international community can also play a role by ending its supply of weapons and ensuring the implementation of international laws. This includes a commitment to arrest and prosecute those who commit crimes against humanity.

It is also urgent that Bobi Wine be granted special protection during and after the elections. The opposition leader has warned that the regime has plans to assassinate him.

What’s ailing Uganda

Museveni’s Uganda is marked by five key characteristics.

Firstly, authoritarianism and institutional control. To entrench his power, Museveni has rigged votes in every political election.

Authoritarianism is reinforced by personal and family control of institutions, particularly the military, police, the judiciary, the legislature and the electoral commission. The president’s son Muhoozi Kainerugaba is Uganda’s chief of defence forces. Museveni’s wife Janet is the minister of education and a member of parliament. All institutions are headed and monopolised by people from the president’s ethnic group.

Secondly, corruption. Uganda is estimated to lose more than Sh10-trillion (US$2.8-billion) to corruption annually. Senior officials have amassed wealth through corruption.

Museveni’s recent political messaging has centred on protecting the gains of those in power. The president has referred to a national resource like oil, estimated at 6.65-billion barrels, as his.

For their part, the UK and US governments have sanctioned Ugandan officials for corruption.

Third, poverty. As of June 2025, Uganda ranked 157th out of 193 countries on a UN global development index. This index measures standards of living. Children still study under trees and hospitals are dilapidated. According to the World Bank, nearly 60% of the population lives on less than US$3 a day.

Fourth, human rights abuses, with perpetrators going unpunished. Supporters of Bobi Wine have faced beatings, torture, arrests, disappearances, military trials and extrajudicial killings. In 2020, security forces killed dozens of opposition supporters. Bobi Wine himself has survived several assassination attempts. His campaigns are frequently blocked. He has been pepper-sprayed, tear-gassed and denied accommodation.

Lastly, digital repression. The government has suspended internet access, and blocked platforms to prevent citizens from sharing evidence of state violence. This digital clampdown is a central tool of political control.

Opposition remains defiant

Despite repression, Bobi Wine, aged 43, has vowed to proceed with his campaign to unseat Museveni, 81. The opposition leader presents his movement as a fight to restore democracy, constitutionalism and civilian rule.

His political programme focuses on ending corruption and youth employment, healing national divisions, and improving access to public services. His manifesto talks about creating jobs, strengthening education, and restoring respect for human rights and the rule of law.

The youth-led struggle for democracy in Uganda reflects a broader continental reality: young Africans are demanding accountable leadership that reflects national potential rather than elite survival.

Why Uganda’s future matters

Reversing authoritarianism is essential if Uganda’s going to deal with its myriad social and political ills.

The biggest immediate threat is a real risk of mass violence. The president’s son, who is also the military chief, has publicly threatened Bobi Wine. The opposition leader has warned of reports suggesting preparations for mass killings.

A reversal of the current state of affairs would contribute to peace and stability in Uganda, and across the Great Lakes region, one of Africa’s most conflict-affected zones. All six of Uganda’s neighbours (Burundi, South Sudan, Democratic Republic of Congo, Rwanda, Tanzania and Kenya) face instability of one form or another.

The region has experienced cycles of violence dating back to the 1980s. Museveni’s bush war (1980-1986) was followed by the 1994 Rwanda genocide. In 1996, Uganda and Rwanda invaded the DR Congo, triggering a wave of violence that persists to date. The violence is heightened by Museveni’s militarisation of the DRC and Kagame’s support for militias in the country, including the March 23 Movement (M23).

In addition, some neighbouring countries are experiencing increased internal political tension. For example Tanzania, long seen as relatively peaceful, has experienced lethal crackdowns against political opponents and protesters.

For its part, Kenya’s young people’s protests against government corruption and police brutality have been met with violence and abductions.

In Uganda itself, ethnic and regional tensions are rising. Museveni has said every soldier will have 120 bullets to silence protesters in the January 2026 election. Civilians have previously been kidnapped, tortured, disappeared and killed.

What’s needed

The youth-led struggle for democracy in Uganda reflects a broader continental reality: young Africans are demanding accountable leadership that reflects national potential rather than elite survival.

In Burkina Faso, the people rallied in support of President Ibrahim Traore’s emancipatory leadership. In Kenya, young people have not stopped demanding democratic rule and accountable leadership.

For the wider international community, supporting democratic transitions is not only a moral responsibility. It is also central to long-term peace, security, development and reducing forced migration.

History shows that early international action can prevent atrocities – and its absence can enable catastrophe.

Written by Evelyn Namakula Mayanja, Assistant Professor, Interdisciplinary Studies, Carleton University

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.