Tariffs proposed by US President Donald Trump will likely have an inflationary impact on South Africa, according to the chief executive officer of one of the country’s largest banks.
Trump’s moves will likely cause the dollar to strengthen, which will also hurt African nations carrying higher debt loads, FirstRand CEO Mary Vilakazi said in a Bloomberg Television interview.
“We worry about the inflationary impact that the tariffs and the other policies that I think are going to be driven by the US,” Vilakazi said on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. “I think we still have to watch the execution of what Trump says. One has to ensure we don’t completely get ahead of ourselves.”
Trump, who was sworn in as US president on Monday, has repeatedly wielded tariffs as a frequent threat against friends and adversaries. The US is currently South Africa’s second-largest trading partner after China.
South Africa could escape the worst of the fallout thanks to the decisions by the new Government of National Unity to implement structural reforms to lift South Africa’s potential economic growth rate, Vilakazi said. Those reforms have resulted in an improvement in the performance of the country’s electricity, transport and logistics sectors, as well as higher levels of fixed investment.
Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana says he now sees the improvements allowing the country to regain its investment-grade credit rating within two years.
“The Government of National Unity has its own vulnerabilities, but I think beyond what plays out in public, there is a real commitment to make sure things work,” she said. “Business is rallying behind and supporting the government’s agenda.”
FirstRand plans to increase its investments in South Africa to tap into the “significant projects” that are on the way, Vilakazi says.
“The need for lending to help the economy is quite significant,” she said. “If one looked out three to five years time, I think the South African economy would have recovered.
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