The content on this page is not written by Polity.org.za, but is supplied by third parties. This content does not constitute news reporting by Polity.org.za.

Several global and domestic economic developments continue to weigh negatively on overall trade conditions in South Africa. The negative conditions continue and are evident from the SACCI Trade Conditions Surveys for some time now. In October 2025 trade conditions were still in negative territory with the composite survey index at 46 – it is below the neutral level of 50. In the first ten months of 2025 the average for the composite trade index was also 46. According to the October 2025 Trade Survey, 54% of the respondents experienced poorer trade conditions in October 2025 than in October 2024. See attached Infographic. 

Whereas 69% of participants in the May 2025 SACCI Trade Survey expected trade conditions to improve over the next six months, positive expectations of participants declined to 61% in the October 2025 Survey. Expected lower sales volumes, fewer new orders, declining supplier deliveries, and lower stock levels in the next six months were the trade elements that led to an overall dip in trade expectations.  

The global trade changes and the direct and multiplying effect it has on local trade have not yet completely impacted local businesses but uncertainty did affect expectations. It appears that actions to complement South Africa’s foreign trade may still be available to optimise established and new international trade opportunities. The private sector must play a useful part in nurturing and expanding such global trade opportunities. 

Consumer inflation stayed low at 3.4% in September 2025 while producer inflation was 2.3%. Lower fuel prices had a positive effect on input costs. Rising municipal tariffs and property tax, however, distorted inflationary expectations and may keep interest rates at present levels for longer. The lowering of the inflation target to about 3% will necessitate strict discipline on the application of price and tariff increases in the private and public sectors. 

Decreased trade activities like the volume of merchandise exports and imports over the medium term, the lower real value of building plans passed, and rising electricity tariffs (y/y), contributed to negative trade sentiment. The effect of the local subdued real economic performance and uncertain global business and investor sentiment was evident. 

Given the negative and varying trade conditions, respondents employed fewer staff in October 2025 and expect to also adjust their number employed in the next six months. 

Issued by SACCI