2025 is predicted to be a tipping point for the mining of rare earth minerals in Africa. The continent’s output will make significant strides towards a projected accomplishment of providing 10% of global supply within five years. This begins this year as new mining endeavours in Malawi, South Africa and other countries begin operations.

While rare earth minerals are commonplace throughout the earth’s crust, they are described as rare because they tend to be distributed widely but not in concentrated areas that make mining viable. Advantaged by several areas of concentrated minerals, China is the world’s leading producer of rare earth minerals today, accounting for 70% of global supply. There are also abundant pockets in parts of Southern Africa. When Malawi’s Songwe Hill and South Africa’s Steenkampskraal advance to full mining production in 2025, the African continent will take two large steps towards exploiting its critical mineral reserves. These stand at nearly one-third of the world’s reserves (30%), which are being exploited now at a growing rate.

Rare earth minerals contain rare earth elements. There are 17 of these elements, which are malleable and easily shaped without breaking during manufacturing. What makes these minerals important in 21st-century industries is the number amount of high-tech devices that depend on them. In medical technologies, these minerals are essential for the manufacturing of MRIs, laser scalpels and some pharmaceutical drugs. Among consumer goods, mobile phones and computers depend on rare earth mineral components. These minerals enable satellite communications, guidance systems and some aircraft components for the aeronautics and space industries. Their use in green energy technology, such as solar panels, electric vehicles and wind turbines, means they are sometimes referred to as transition minerals, aiding the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energies.

Stabilised prices come at a good time for African mining

While China produces over two-thirds of the world’s rare earth minerals, the country has been overproducing these minerals to meet Chinese industrial demand, driven by new major users for the production of humanoid robots. As a result, a reduction in China’s production has already begun to boost rare earth mineral prices globally. Prices rose 2% in January 2025. This comes when investment in Africa’s rare earth mineral mining is increasing, adding to the attraction of such investment.

Global demand for these minerals is expected to quadruple by 2030, in harmony with accelerated renewable energy demand and production of the technologies to meet these growing needs. Concurrently, eight major new mines are coming into operation in Angola, Malawi, South Africa and Tanzania. All these mine operators say they will start production by 2029, and these eight operations alone will contribute 9% of the world’s supply of rare earth minerals. By 2030, the African continent is forecast to produce 10% of the world’s demand for these minerals, up from a negligible amount of less than one percent in 2020.

However, over supply and under supply are issues that will require finessing, as demand for rare earth minerals increases and producers must anticipate market needs. For instance, because of a surplus at the start of 2025 of neodymium praseodymium oxide, which is vital for the manufacturing of magnets in electronic devices, production that stood at 5,400 tonnes in 2024 will be only 500 tonnes in 2025, according to mining industry projections. Meanwhile, demand for neodymium and praseodymium by electric vehicles manufacturers and wind turbines producers will grow by 15% in 2025. By year’s end, inevitably, the supply surplus will become a deficit.

Boosting industries and economies through rare earth minerals production

China is for the moment unconcerned about Africa’s entry into the rare earth minerals supply chain. In December 2024, China entirely stopped the export of several products made in the country from rare earth minerals in order to meet domestic needs for these items. While these offer opportunities to other countries to fill the gap by producing these products themselves, the world will still depend on China for its rare earth mineral needs because China supplies a staggering 90% of the world’s refined rare earth minerals. The country’s refining technology is not exclusive; however, because Western policymakers have historically been influenced by the coal and oil industries, the growth of rare earth refining operations in the region has been relatively slow.

This is an opportunity for Africa. African policymakers are looking at the burgeoning boom in rare earth elements to lift their economies by developing a refining capacity for rare earth elements. With an eye on maximising the benefits of the extraction of these minerals, the mining industry is looking at post-extraction initiatives. Previously, African governments seldom questioned the wholesale extraction of their minerals, which were shipped abroad in an unprocessed state to industrial centres overseas. These minerals were then manufactured into automotive parts, consumer goods and industrial inputs, exported back to Africa at much higher prices. The change in this practice was noted in 2023 when Zimbabwe’s government famously banned the export of lithium, an essential element in the production of electric vehicle batteries. The government informed potential buyers that, if they wanted lithium for car batteries, they had to set up car battery manufacturing factories in Zimbabwe.

Government economists are looking at other ways to exploit rare earth minerals mining to expand their countries’ manufacturing bases, such as using the African Continental Free Trade Area to form partnerships with other nations to make end-use applications out of these minerals. The European Union and the US both wish to reduce dependency on China as a supplier of rare earth minerals and, thus, have ample motivation to invest in Africa’s ambition to exploit its own rare earth minerals wealth, including the development of a refining capacity.

It should be noted that of the major rare earth minerals projects mentioned earlier, not one of them is Chinese-owned, despite China’s continuing investments in Africa in a broad-range of economic activities. All major companies mining rare earth elements in Africa are registered in Western countries, including Mkango Resources, Pensana PLC and Rainbow Rare Earths. In 2025, the Australian firm Lindian Resources will start production in Malawi, while in 2026, Australia’s Ionic Rare Earths Limited plans to begin production at its Makuutu Rare Earths Project.

Investment in the rare earth minerals sector is not restricted to mining and mineral refining. Growth in the sector will create jobs in the supply chain of businesses servicing the sector. This growth will also inevitably result in improved rail and road infrastructure to transport products, creating additional jobs to further secure Africa’s mining future.

The critical points:

• From negligible production in 2020, Africa will produce 10% of the world’s supply of rare earth minerals by 2030
• With new rare earth minerals operations coming online throughout Southern Africa, 2025 will be a significant growth year for the sector
• Economic planners seek to exploit greater benefits from Africa’s rare earth minerals to expand manufacturing sectors and infrastructure

Paper by In on Africa