The improved trade conditions in the first two months of this year were extended into March, but retreated somewhat in April, the South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Sacci) says.

Sacci’s Trade Conditions Survey for March and April also shows some resilience despite subdued overall economic circumstances.

Of the respondents, 49% reported positive trade activities in April after 55% had reported positive experiences in March.

Additionally, 49% of respondents also indicated that trade conditions were below the April 2024 levels, Sacci points out.

However, seasonally adjusted conditions for April suggest a dip of about 5% from March, it adds.

Further, 69% of the participants expect trade conditions to improve over the next six months, the chamber points out.

The trade outlook for the next six months improved, with expectations for trade volumes, orders, supplies and inventories looking favourable, and 70% of the respondents report a positive six-month outlook.

The moderation of expectations is in accordance with uncertainty and a subdued performance of the local economy in general, Sacci adds.

“It would appear that the actions taken to enhance local economic performance are perceived as positive despite an uncertain global economic environment.

“The value-added tax saga during March and April did cause some discomfort and additional costs to trade,” Sacci says.

Further, inflation, which declined further in March, provided notable easing, such as lower fuel expenses, it adds.

“The expected slower rise in input costs and lower inflationary expectations while maintaining higher sales volumes and new orders may depend on the extent to which the economy performs under the present restricted and uncertain global conditions.

“Under these uncertain overall circumstances, the most viable options for balancing a budget are to cut spending, given that the impacts of personal income and corporate tax on trade in South Africa are already high compared to international standards,” Sacci states, referring to the National Budget to be presented to Parliament on May 21 after two failed previous attempts to get the Budget passed by all members of the Government of National Unity.

Under tight trade conditions, it is easy to draw up a Budget that provides for expenses, but it is much more challenging to budget for increased income, it adds.

Meanwhile, recent data on trade activities point toward positive trade developments, including new-vehicles sales growth of 11% year-on-year, retail sales growth of 4% year-on-year and merchandise imports volume growth of 1% year-on-year.

New-vehicle sales, as a leading indicator, continued the upward momentum of the first quarter into the second quarter 2025, the business chamber adds.

However, merchandise export volumes declined 1.8% on the preceding year, inward overseas tourists declined by 1% year-one-year and the real value of building plans passed dropped by 4.8% year-on-year, implying that trade conditions are exposed to volatility.

Given the openness of the South African economy and the inward linkages to the local economy, global trade will be critical to trade conditions, Sacci adds.

Additionally, the trade conditions in March and April reflect some stability in employment, while respondents anticipate hiring more staff in the next six months given overall improved trade expectations.