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The trade environment is experiencing tensions caused by global trade uncertainty, as well as local subdued economic performance and excessive unemployment. The SACCI Trade Conditions Survey for May and June 2025 retracted into negative territory from an improved positive position in March and April 2025.

During the first six months of 2025, trade conditions started off relatively weak, improved into positive terrain, but then again ended weaker in May and June 2025. Whereas 56% of respondents experienced positive conditions in March, the trade climate gradually weakened, with 46% of respondents positive about their trade experience in May and June. However, fifty-one percent of the respondents indicated that trade conditions in June 2025 were better than in June 2024. See attached Infographic.

Compared to sixty-nine percent of participants in May expecting trade conditions to improve over the next six months, in June only sixty-two percent were positive about the next six months. The disappointing economic performance at present, and a globally uncertain economic and trade environment, contributed to a less favourable trade outlook. It therefore remains inevitable that the actions taken to enhance the local economic performance must be continued and enhanced.

Consumer inflation that stayed low at 2.8% in May 2025 and producer inflation that measured 0.1% provided some comfort to households and producers. The latest increase in the fuel price could have been higher if the rand had not strengthened against the US dollar by about 1.5% in June. Rising municipal tariffs and property tax may further distort inflationary expectations and thus disturb the prospects for lower interest rates. Real interest rates remain at an uncomfortable high level.

The trade outlook for the next six months deteriorated, with expected lower sales volumes, fewer new orders, and decreasing supplier deliveries. Whereas 75% of the respondents were positive about the trade outlook in December 2024, 65% had a positive six-month outlook in June 2025. The downward drift of expectations is in accordance with uncertainty and an anticipated limited performance by the local economy.

Recent data on trade activities like new vehicle sales (+18% y/y), retail sales (+5% y/y), inward overseas tourists (+3% y/y), and merchandise import volumes (+3% y/y) confirm certain positive trade developments. New vehicle sales, notably as a leading indicator, suggest an upward momentum in the first half of 2025.

Merchandise export volumes (-10% y/y) and the real value of building plans passed (-16% y/y) that declined, however, imply disparity amongst various trade activities. 

Uncertainty of global trade prospects may become exceedingly perplexing in the near future. Global trade relations will be critical to trade conditions for South Africa due to its open economy and its inward linkages.

Although trade conditions recently showed some sensitivity, respondents do not anticipate drastic adjustments to employment of staff—now or in the next six months. 

Issued by South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry