Any strategy to address this crime should focus on identifying and disrupting those who benefit from it.

Kidnapping, defined in South Africa as the unlawful intentional deprivation of a person’s freedom of movement, or the unlawful intentional deprivation of a parent’s control over a child, is rising countrywide.

The South African Police Service’s (SAPS) annual crime statistics show that in the past decade, kidnappings increased by 264% from 4 692 in 2014/15 to 17 061 in 2023/24. The most recent quarterly crime stats, released on 25 November, show an ongoing rise.

From July to September, the latest period for which there are official crime statistics, a daily average of 50 kidnappings were reported to police – up by nearly 8% compared to the same period in 2023. The risk of kidnapping varies across the country. Gauteng is the most affected province, recording more than half (51%) of all reported incidents, followed by KwaZulu-Natal (20%), Western Cape, and Mpumalanga with 6% each and the Eastern Cape with 5%. The remaining provinces contribute between 1% and 4% each.

But who is most at risk? And in what circumstances do kidnappings occur?

The SAPS Crime Registrar’s office has helped somewhat to answer these questions. They analyse the ‘causative factors’ for kidnappings in each province. Their analysis for the 2023/24 financial year shows that most cases were perpetrated during aggravated robberies, such as car or truck hijackings or armed robberies at businesses, homes, or in public spaces.

These often take the form of ‘express kidnappings’ where victims are kept for a few hours or days to facilitate the theft of their funds, usually held by banks. The victim is held hostage so they can be coerced into drawing money from ATMs or transferring their funds into accounts controlled by the criminals through mobile banking applications.

Kidnapping for ransom often makes headlines, driving the perception that this is a widespread and growing crime. However, less than 5% of all kidnappings reported to police are linked to ransom demands, human trafficking or extortion.

While some of the kidnappings for ransom are orchestrated by sophisticated transnational organised groups specialising in high-value targets, most kidnappings are perpetrated by local crime groups.

Chart 1: Causative factors for kidnapping in South Africa, April 2023 to March 2024

Source: SAPS Crime Registrar, ISS analysis, 2024

Of the 14 646 (86%) cases sampled from the 17 061 kidnappings reported to police, motives could be established in 91% of cases analysed. Aggravated robberies accounted for 66% of all kidnappings, with 44% committed during a hijacking and 22% during another type of robbery.

A further 10% are committed with the intention to perpetrate a sexual assault or rape. Seven percent are associated with retaliation or revenge attacks, often by gangs or rival groups. Kidnapping linked to ransom made about 4%, slightly up from previous periods. Kidnapping for extortion or human trafficking comprised less than 1% of the total.

The reason Gauteng recorded the most kidnappings is that it also recorded the highest number of carjackings (49.5% of all hijackings recorded countrywide). Moreover, Gauteng holds 36% of all armed robberies recorded countrywide.

It seems kidnapping has become a key tactic in armed robberies and carjackings. Criminals in this province are more likely to use express kidnappings, as nearly 80% of kidnappings in Gauteng are linked to a hijacking (60%) or another type of robbery (19%).

Robbery-related kidnappings make up the lion’s share of cases in Mpumalanga (63%), KwaZulu-Natal (55%), and North West (55%). In other provinces, robberies contribute between 27% (Limpopo) and 47% (Western Cape) (see chart below).

Chart 2: Causative factors for kidnapping in South Africa, by province, April 2023 to March 2024\

Source: SAPS Crime Registrar, ISS analysis, 2024

The 2023/24 annual crime statistics revealed a continued increase in aggravated robbery, though at a slightly lower rate (2.9%) compared to the 10% increase the previous year. Carjacking stabilised with 22 735 cases or 63 cases a day. This amounts to a 78% increase in the past decade. Similarly, 1 976 truck hijackings were recorded – a marginal decline of 19 cases compared to the previous year, but still representing a 54.5% increase over a decade.

The 1 April to 30 September stats showed drops in most violent crime categories, with only serious assaults and attempted murders showing slight increases. Unfortunately, kidnapping is the one exception, with a further 7.6% increase compared to the same period in 2023. This means existing policing approaches are not having an impact on kidnapping despite the well-documented successes of provincial kidnapping task teams for ransom-driven cases.

However, to bring the overall levels of kidnappings down, the SAPS will have to focus on addressing aggravated robberies. As this crime is also behind many murders and attempted murders, getting on top of those who are involved or profit off of aggravated robberies would generally improve overall public safety and fear of crime.

Robberies are committed by relatively few people and can be reduced relatively quickly with focused intelligence-led policing supported by dedicated investigation units and forensics. The Gauteng Aggravated Robbery Strategy implemented from 2009-11 reduced hijackings by 32%, home robberies by 20%, and business robberies by 19% in that period.

While politically popular, SAPS high-density and resource-intensive operations such as Operation Shanela are not having the necessary impact on crime. An intelligence-led, focused aggravated robbery strategy that is part of a comprehensive organised crime strategy could guide all law enforcement agencies in the country to play a role.

Such a strategy requires a measurable implementation plan, resources, and a coordinating mechanism. Key organisational and systemic reforms such as those recommended previously by the Institute for Security Studies will be required for such a strategy to work.

Any strategy should focus on identifying and disrupting the individuals, groups, and networks benefitting from armed robberies. Such a strategy should incorporate a focus on tackling firearm crime, as most robberies involve using firearms.

Importantly, SAPS Crime Intelligence must be completely overhauled and corrupt elements removed. And it would need to be subject to much greater levels of accountability from Parliament, the offices of the Inspector-General for Intelligence (which must also be strengthened), and other agencies such as the Auditor-General.

Written by Lizette Lancaster, Crime Hub Manager, ISS Pretoria