Regardless of whether South Africa achieves a breakthrough in trade negotiations with the US or must navigate continued barriers, the country must look to bolster trade diversification efforts.

The country’s imperative should also remain on accelerating economic transformation through diversified partnerships, improving infrastructure and increasing investment confidence, business organisation Business Leadership South Africa (BLSA) CEO Busi Mavuso asserts in her weekly newsletter.

“The modest growth we've achieved this quarter, while encouraging, underscores that we cannot afford to wait for external solutions. Business and government must work together with renewed urgency to unlock the investment and productivity gains that will drive sustainable growth and job creation.

“In an increasingly fragmented global economy, South Africa's success will depend not on any single trading relationship, but on our ability to build resilience through multiple pathways to prosperity,” she emphasises.

Mavuso points out that trade negotiations with the US are showing momentum following Trade, Industry and Competition Minister Parks Tau's visiting the US last week and preparations being under way for President Cyril Ramaphosa to visit this week.

However, success remains uncertain given the unpredictable nature of US politics and domestic policy demands, Mavuso cautions.

Therefore, she says, South Africa must prepare for all scenarios by accelerating trade diversification efforts, including deeper African integration and new partnerships with Indonesia, Vietnam, Malaysia, India and the UK.

“Our African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) is important to accelerate the flow of goods to the rest of Africa. Mutual recognition arrangements such as those signed in July with India and the UK, ease customs and border procedures, removing trade frictions. The BRICS arrangements also offer enhanced trade and investment opportunities as well as better advocacy for a fairer global trade system,” Mavuso highlights.

She adds that there is much to take forward out of the B20 process, particularly the trade and industrial transformation recommendations, which include deeper regional trade through the AfCFTA and the adoption of green and digital technologies to re-energise manufacturing.

The dtic is also preparing a mission with South African companies to Indonesia, Vietnam and Malaysia next month as part of its broader efforts to promote new trading corridors.

Beyond trade negotiations, these efforts are part of addressing the country’s wider economic challenges, where recent data offers cautious reason for optimism, Mavuso notes.

Second-quarter GDP growth of 0.8% suggests full-year growth could exceed 1%, supported by higher precious metals prices and progress on the electricity and logistics crises, she explains.

“However, the investment component of the GDP figures was a big disappointment, coming in at the lowest level we’ve seen since 2003, equivalent to 13.5% of GDP,” Mavuso warns, noting that public corporations were particularly weak despite the government’s R1-trillion infrastructure spending target.