The biggest immediate impact of the US-Israeli attack on Iran on countries like South Africa will be the elevated uncertainty about global oil prices and the prospect of higher fuel costs in the months ahead, says North-West University Business School economist Professor Raymond Parsons.

Oil prices are widely expected to spike in the short-term and stay high for a period, depending on the outcome of the war and in the absence of any new supply measures to offset higher oil prices.

“South Africa must not underestimate the potential negative economic and business implications that could yet unfold for many economies from the US-Israel attack on Iran.

“Travel and tourism in the Middle East has been disrupted, with air flights having been cancelled on a large scale,” he says.

Further, although the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries has undertaken to increase output soon, the bigger unknown factor is whether the navigation and transport of Iranian oil through the Strait of Hormuz will be disrupted by prevailing war conditions.

“There are conflicting reports about the latest status of the straits. The global oil price outlook, therefore, remains very uncertain in the current highly volatile geopolitical circumstances in the Middle East,” says Parsons.