Ah, Chief Dwasaho! I missed the State of the Nation Address (SoNA) last night. It was a comeuppance on my side since you have consistently refused to engage with a lowly newspaper fellow from Zululand. I understand adult mutism when people are called upon to account for their leadership deficit. While ignoring me has no immediate consequences, the 47th United States (US) President Donald Trump, using megaphone diplomacy and crude language, will be a different kettle of fish to ignore. He is convinced (right or wrong) doesn’t count that South Africa was "confiscating land" and treating "certain classes of people" "very badly." Trump stated that funding would be halted until the situation was thoroughly investigated.

What President Trump doesn't know won't hurt him or US interests abroad. The ANC's failure to deal with the original sin, the land question for 30 years, is a tipping bomb waiting to explode. According to the government's data, Land Audit Report 2017, which provides detailed insights, white individuals own 26 663 144 hectares, accounting for 72% of the total 37 031 283 hectares of farms and agricultural holdings by individual landowners. In contrast, Black Africans own 1 314 873 hectares, representing 4% of such land.   

It gets worse; according to the latest 2023 housing data supplied by the Department of Human Settlements, there are 4 297 informal settlements across the country — which are home to more than two-million households — most of which are concentrated in the major metropolitan areas of Johannesburg (210), Cape Town (464) and eThekwini (530). In 2022, the South African Cities Network reported that one in five people in South African cities now live in informal settlements, which is expected to rise. There’s no need to state that the overwhelming majority of shack dwellers are black people. It is also no secret that when the settlers came to our shores in 1652, they didn’t bring with them any land parcels.

No one, not even a Howard University doctorate graduate, can explain why South Africa’s well-documented disparities, which are dragging us ever closer to the brink, are treated with such indifference.

Meanwhile, the political class—across all parties—is preoccupied with trivialities: bringing the Formula One Grand Prix race to the country, rehabilitating abandoned government buildings, and chasing undocumented foreign nationals, as if any of these will solve the country’s deep-seated land crises.

According to the latest data from Statistics South Africa’s Census 2022, there are 50 486 856 Black African people in South Africa, making up 81.4% of the total population. Yet, they own a mere 4% of productive land, live in shacks, and remain disproportionately unemployed. If this isn’t an emergency, I don’t know.

Data from Statistics South Africa's Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) for the third quarter of 2024 shows that the unemployment rate among Black African people remains significantly higher than that of other population groups, standing at 36.1%. According to Statistics South Africa's Census 2022, 4 504 252 white people live here, constituting 7.3% of the total population, yet the unemployment rate is 7.9 per cent. Nobody needs a sociology degree or even a master's in political science to recognise South Africa’s original apartheid sin—its chronic shortage of opportunities for productive land, decent jobs, and meaningful participation in the economy for the black population, the lack of singular focus on these—is, frankly, unsustainable.

We in the middle class can pontificate how the ANC has mismanaged the economy—sewage spills, potholes, water shortages, and load-shedding, our oldest trusted friend. But the so-called "barbarians at the gate" demand more than just pothole-free roads. They want formal housing, decent jobs, and farming land. If none of this materialises soon, Armageddon will arrive faster than Trump's threats to punish Pretoria for non-existent land grabs.

To resolve the original sin—the land question—you don’t need short-termism, land seizures, or driving white people into the sea. The Constitution, land reform laws passed since 1994, and the recent Expropriation Act provide a blueprint to tackle this crisis of Trumpian proportions. Still, the fiscus cannot be the sole funding source for apartheid redress. There must be a reset in thinking about South Africa’s future from captains of industry, landowners, absentee landlords, and those hoarding multiple hectares of idle land. It is more than affirmative action and BBE; it’s about the majority of citizens having a feeling of “home.” Soon, they won’t care who runs the government; we will see the scenes of the July “Zuma” 2021 riots tenfold.

If we, the educated middle class residing in the suburbs like Waterkloof, fail to engage meaningfully in the debate concerning the future of our homeland, the "barbarians at the gate” will bring an end to South Africa as we know it—more swiftly than Trump’s ill-informed outbursts.

My leader, the point I am making is that the Expropriation Act is 30 years late and will not improve in the short term (20 years) dire land hunger for formal settlements and agriculture by the indigenous people. As Stephen Grootes rightly said, the Expropriation Act (which will not result in land being taken for nil compensation unless it has been abandoned) are a deliberate dog-whistle to his (Trump) voters, AfriForum and Solidarity. The Expropriation Act is so meticulously phrased that most instances of expropriation, even with compensation, will fall under the judiciary's scrutiny. This is because the ANC led a multitude of black people into a “covenant” to live side by side with the “oppressor.” The 1996 Constitution and subsequent actions or omissions reinforce my view that no one in the political class (ANC acolytes) is gearing for Armageddon. Unfortunately, the “barbarians are at the gate”, and with one slip, it will be all over for all of us, not just for white people with the land and money but for all of us. If the land question remains unresolved, it will, irrespective of who replaces the ANC in the next poll, result in an Arab Spring scenario.

As we know, the funding from the US for “perfunctory” projects aimed at keeping the “barbarians at the gate” hopeful for a “Better Life for All” is drying up. President Trump is resolute in reorganising US foreign affairs, including dismantling the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). USAID operates in approximately 130 countries, implementing various projects encompassing food security, energy, climate change mitigation, and health. In other words, USAID operates in more countries, surpassing the United Nations' membership of 193 nations. The most recent country to join the UN was South Sudan, which continues to grapple with the ongoing war which the world isn't interested in resolving because we are busy with the Gaza Strip or the Goma imbroglio.

In recent times, Comrade Leadership, the world (Pretoria included) has watched Mozambique’s slow deterioration for months—another Zimbabwe in the making? Yet, the African Union and the Southern African Development Community wasted no time deploying troops to Cabo Delgado, Mozambique’s northernmost province, because the “barbarians” supposedly threatened regional peace and stability. The same lackadaisical attitude we see in the Government of National Unity (GNU) in treating the local population as pawns in the grand schemes of political brinkmanship, but the winter of discontent will soon spread beyond villages, slums and townships, and it will be too late to focus on real issues: land question. 

But, my leader, we all know that the real crisis facing many African nations is political instability, often orchestrated in foreign capitals with generous injections of cash and weapons. Who can explain a rebel group in Africa with mortar bombs? I laughed out loud when General Bantu Holomisa of the UDM stokvel told eNCA that our soldiers in Goma ran out of ammunition. The Battle for Goma is modern warfare—drones, mortar bombs, and surface-to-air missiles, not bullets.  

In simple terms, my leader, your 2024 SoNA 2.0 under the much-fancied GNU should have been two pages focusing on pulling SA from the brink of collapse: the land question, structural economic reforms, dealing with poverty, ending unemployment, and enabling investors to set up “shop” where there is certainty about tarred roads, water and electricity.

Till next week, my man. Send me nowhere near your GNU, as the dearth of original, progressive political thinking continues unabated, making my stomach turn.

Written by Bhekisisa Mncube. He won the 2024 Standard Bank Sikuvile Journalism Award in the column/editorial category, which he also won in 2020 at the Vodacom Journalist of the Year Awards.

This opinion piece was originally published in the Daily Maverick.