The massive scale and fast pace of displacement cycles have overwhelmed support systems in Sudan and neighbouring countries.

Almost three years since war broke out in Sudan, the conflict has produced the world’s worst humanitarian disaster, with millions fleeing to other parts of the country, neighbouring countries and further afield. And even as returnee numbers are increasing, intensifying clashes have left 40% of the population food-insecure and urgently in need of assistance.

Since the war started in April 2023, about 15 million people have been forcibly displaced within Sudan’s borders, accounting for a staggering 12% of the total number of people displaced (both within and outside their countries) globally.

The massive scale and fast pace of displacement have overwhelmed the systems of Sudan and its neighbours, particularly Chad, Egypt, Ethiopia, Libya and South Sudan, all of which face their own challenges. Chad and South Sudan, for example, have welcomed over 30% of the Sudanese fleeing conflict, but lack the resources to meet their urgent humanitarian needs, while grappling with fragility within their own borders.

Recent Institute for Security Studies analysis notes that a key feature of Sudan’s displacement crisis over the years is the vicious cycle of being forced to leave home, followed by a precarious return, and then secondary displacement. This cycle existed long before the current war.

Sudan’s history has been plagued by prolonged structural vulnerabilities worsened by successive waves of hostility since at least 1956. This has seen previously displaced people returning during lulls in hostilities or periods of relative stability. But without sustainable peace efforts, these returns are fragile and can be short-lived. On arriving home, many have to contend with ongoing insecurity, damaged infrastructure and limited services.

Escalations in fighting since the end of October 2025 have worsened the situation in Sudan and increased displacement into border regions in Chad and South Sudan. Intensifying violence in El-Fasher, North Darfur, displaced over 127 000 people according to recent International Organization for Migration (IOM) estimates. In neighbouring Kordofan, clashes since the end of October forced around 115 000 people to flee.

Displacements and returns as a result of Sudan’s conflict

At the same time, a countertrend has re-emerged, as over three million Sudanese return home, despite extensive damage to infrastructure, including roads and housing, and the limited availability of basic services.

In Khartoum, Sudan’s capital, civilians are trickling back after the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) regained control of the city in March 2025. According to the IOM, by 31 December last year, more than 1.4-million people had returned to Khartoum state alone. Some may have heeded SAF calls to come home, though the country’s security situation remains precarious.

The vast majority (83%) of returnees were displaced within Sudan, while the remainder came from neighbouring countries and Persian Gulf states. Some hope the situation will stabilise enough for them to rebuild. Yet, many return to unstable contexts having been forced back by dire conditions in overcrowded, unsafe and unsanitary displacement camps.

In other cases, those who have fled across borders are pushed back or deported. For example, in December 2025, Egypt – which hosts 36.6% of Sudan’s refugees – ramped up deportations, forcing many back home.

Returnee numbers since the war started are increasing, which may set the stage for some rebuilding, but with the conflict still raging, so are displacement figures. Darfur alone accounts for approximately 5.5-million of the people internally displaced – about 62% of the total.

The country and its displaced and returning populations require sustained support to end this cycle of displacement, and in time, the conflict. But this won’t be easy.

Despite some hope, the situation remains devastating. It is made worse by international humanitarian and aid organisations scaling back services due to funding limitations. In 2025, for example, only 38% of the humanitarian appeal for Sudan was funded. For 2026, the figure is only 13%.

As the war intensifies, the vicious cycles of displacement could worsen. Chad, Egypt and South Sudan will need to balance their national priorities with the needs of displaced people. Coordinated global action is required, but the withdrawal of funding and technical support needed to respond effectively portends a deepening crisis.

A more coherent, enforceable and predictable regional protection framework is needed. This includes burden-sharing in hosting those who have fled conflict, supporting voluntary returns and providing critical services and aid to those displaced internally and externally by the war.

There are some small yet significant shifts. This February, Sudan decided to return to the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD). It had frozen its membership of the regional body in 2024 after IGAD included Rapid Support Forces leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo at its leaders’ summit in Kampala. Sudan’s recent move could signal its realisation that regional support is critical.

Sudan’s protracted displacement calls for a collaborative and rights-based system that includes safe and voluntary returns, paving the way for Sudanese people to rebuild their country.

Read the full ISS report ‘Fragmented asylum: fault lines in regional responses to the Sudanese displacement crisis,’ here.

Written by Ottilia Anna Maunganidze, Head of Special Projects, ISS