With a growing emphasis on commercially viable modern renewable energy investments, Zambia is emerging as a market to watch for new forms of Chinese engagement in the energy sector.

Zambia stands at a pivotal moment in its development trajectory. The government’s Vision 2030 sets ambitious economic growth targets. Energy security is critical to meeting these goals – both to power the expansion of strategic sectors such as mining and agriculture, and to reach the millions of Zambians who remain off-grid or experience persistent load-shedding.

Chronic power crises have made energy diversification a national imperative. Tapping into the country’s modern renewables potential, particularly solar, has emerged as a political and economic priority. The scale of investment required, however, far exceeds public resources. With fiscal space constrained and sovereign borrowing limited by ongoing debt restructuring, private capital will be essential.

As the world’s leading clean-tech manufacturer and energy sector financier, China is well-positioned to participate in Zambia’s modern renewable energy expansion. While China has scaled back large-scale infrastructure lending, commercial financing has become more prominent, and Chinese policy strongly encourages investment in green development in emerging markets, including across Africa.

Zambia’s energy sector is closely intertwined with its mining industry, which consumes nearly half of the country’s electricity and is poised for significant expansion. As a leading producer of copper, cobalt, and other transition minerals, resources essential to batteries, electric vehicles, and renewable energy technologies, Zambia is seeking to move beyond raw material extraction toward greater value addition. This creates a dual opportunity: to integrate modern renewable energy into mining operations, and to leverage China’s interest in securing access to critical minerals to attract investment in processing and low-carbon supply chains. With Chinese companies looking to scale up their presence in Zambia’s mining sector, the intersection of energy security, mineral production, and value-chain development represents a key frontier for new forms of Chinese engagement.

Our analysis highlights several ‘what to watch’ areas in Zambia’s evolving energy sector policy, financing and partnerships landscape.

Report by the Overseas Development Institute