JOHANNESBURG (miningweekly.com) – The direct impact of tariffs on forecast platinum demand in 2025 is estimated to total only 112 000 oz, or 1.4% of total demand. While the indirect risks through slower GDP growth over the next few years could be more significant in terms of lower automotive and industrial demand, currently this is being more than eclipsed by the strength in demand for platinum investment and jewellery products as a result of the high gold price, with platinum market deficits entrenched and expected to continue through 2029.

The current tariff uncertainty is expected to persist, especially as the market awaits the findings of the US’s Section 232 Critical Minerals Report, World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) pointed out in a media release to Mining Weekly on the key takeaways from what is described as a “milestone” fifth Shanghai Platinum Week.

“The importance of China to global platinum group metal (PGM) demand is attracting much attention, and the 2025 Shanghai Platinum Week was especially timely, given recent developments in the platinum market,” said WPIC CEO Trevor Raymond.

The annual event dedicated to the PGMs industry is co-organised by WPIC, China Gold Association Platinum Committee and Valterra Platinum, whose CEO Craig Miller has reported that Shanghai has been selected as an international marketing location.

“Attending Shanghai Platinum Week has highlighted its value for connecting with the PGM market in China, which remains an important focus for Valterra Platinum, reflected in our decision to make Shanghai the location of one of our three international marketing offices.

“Shaping demand for PGMs through market development remains an integral part of our strategy. Our work as a founding member of the International Hydrogen Fuel Cell Association in China is ongoing and we continue to support the work of the World Platinum Investment Council and Platinum Guild International both here in China and across other regions,” Miller commented.

WPIC regional head Asia Pacific Weibin Deng commented on LinkedIn that excellent feedback had been received from delegates at this year’s Shanghai Platinum Week, which had 533 000 day-one online attendees and a record-breaking 592 in-person attendees from more than 290 organisations.

A key takeaway from the latest Shanghai Platinum Week has been the strength in demand for physical platinum investment products and platinum jewellery, driven in part by a response to the high gold price. Sustained demand momentum could add substantially to annual investment demand over five years.

Several refineries in China have attained accreditation from the London Platinum and Palladium Market good delivery status, with several more applications in progress.

China platinum jewellery demand has been led so far by wholesalers commissioning fabrication and making stock available for sale to smaller wholesalers and retailers.

The range of platinum jewellery available reflects gold jewellery designs that have sold well in recent years.

Sustained retail sales of this newly available platinum jewellery could drive a significant increase in annual demand in 2026 and beyond, WPIC stated.

China VII/7 vehicle emissions standards will be authorised in 2026 and introduced soon after.

The inclusion of cold start and real-world driving tests are expected to result in upside to PGM loadings per vehicle.

PLATINUM AND PVC

Globally, polyvinyl chloride (PVC) manufacturers need to phase out the use of mercury-based catalysts by 2030.

A transition to a platinum-based catalyst is the most likely alternative PVC option, which could provide a significant boost to platinum demand.

The Orange Group gave an outlook for the hydrogen sector. Installed electrolysis capacity is forecast to reach 100 GW globally by 2030, with platinum-based proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolysers having a 40% market share and with platinum being included in alkaline electrolysers to improve their efficiency. PEM electrolysers and alkaline electrolysers split water into hydrogen for the generation of electricity.

“Platinum demand in China is continuing to expand, as the growth in physical platinum investment we are currently witnessing demonstrates,” says Raymond. China has become the number one growth market for platinum bar and coin investment, accounting for 64% of global platinum bar and coin demand in 2024, up from 11% in 2019, as market development initiatives continue to bear fruit. Moreover, that this growth has been strongly supported so far in 2025 by a resurgence of platinum jewellery manufacturing in China, in the wake of the extremely high gold price, has been a major talking point at this year’s event.

“Platinum investment is a natural mechanism for attracting metal into any geography, providing a pool of liquidity to supply future demand. For a strategically important metal, like platinum, which is an essential ingredient for the hydrogen economy and global decarbonisation, this is likely to prove particularly important for major end-users, such as China, that do not have meaningful domestic sources of supply beyond recycling,” added Raymond.

Global demand for platinum is becoming more diverse. There are four core segments of platinum demand: automotive, industrial, jewellery and investment demand.

Platinum demand from autocatalysts used in vehicles to curb pollution has equated to between 29% and 42% of total demand in the last five years. Platinum’s diverse non-automotive industrial uses account on five-year average for 32% of total global demand. Over the same period, global annual jewellery demand has averaged 26% of total platinum demand. Investment demand is the most variable category over the past five years, ranging between -8% and 21% of total demand, excluding movements in unpublished vaulted investor holdings.