Lucky Aiyedatiwa (APC)

Lucky Aiyedatiwa was the state’s deputy governor until December 2023, when he was sworn in as governor. His claims in the debate revolved around his achievements since.

Aiyedatiwa claimed that his administration had made Ondo one of the safest in the country. “As at today, Ondo state is being regarded as one of the safest and peaceful states in Nigeria,” he said.

What counts as peace?

The governor provided no data or ranking to support the claim. 

“The concept of peace is a broad statement that needs to be put into context,” Otoabasi Akpan, professor of history of ideas and international security studies at Akwa Ibom State University in southern Nigeria, told Africa Check.

“What kind of peace did he have in mind? Peace in terms of what? The absence of protest? Or is it that the people of Ondo state feel fulfilled? Is it because he is providing free education? Or is it because armed incidents such as kidnapping and robbery have stopped?”

What about security?

We asked Dennis Des-Dokubo, a former chief of security to the deputy governor of Bayelsa state, what constitutes security in a state. He cited safe movement, a low rate of kidnapping compared to other states, low theft and low police visibility as some indicators.

Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) publishes crime statistics. Moses Mathew, a statistical information officer at the agency, referred us to their 2017 crime report. But this was before the governor's time in office.

“The 2017 crime statistics report is what we have. You could use our report or go to the police,” he said. The NBS report grouped crime reported to the police into three categories: offences against persons, offences against properties and offences against lawful authority.

The data shows that 134 663 cases of crime were reported nationally in 2017. 

The top three states with the least crimes recorded overall were Kebbi (205), Kogi (282) and Bauchi (386). Ondo was 31st, with 3 713 reported cases.

In 2016, there were 125 790 cases of crime reported nationally. The top three states were Katsina (120), Abia (364) and Zamfara (483). That year, Ondo was 32nd out of 36 states, with 3 493 cases of crime.

The available police data also captured 89 cases of “major crime” in Ondo in 2023, which included murder, armed robbery and kidnapping. At least 10 states had fewer cases. Nationally, 5 647 cases were recorded.

In 2022, when there were 6 359 cases recorded nationally, Ondo had 58. And in 2021 Ondo had just one case reported, against 3 965 nationally. 

Police spokesperson Muyiwa Adejobi has not yet responded to our request for more information on how the data was collected, given the disparities.

No reliable state-level security indices

Nigeria is ranked in several security indices, including the Nigeria Security Threat Index, the Global Peace Index, the Stability Index and the National Cyber Security Index.

However, there is no state-level security index available. Prof Abayomi Adebayo, who teaches economics at the Obafemi Awolowo University Ile-Ife in south-west Nigeria, told Africa Check that state-level data was scarce.

“Many states end up with sentimental security indices for self-evaluation propaganda,” he told Africa Check. In the absence of up-to-date state data, we rate the governor’s claim about his 10 month-record as unproven.

Several governors in Nigeria have previously claimed to run the safest states. 

However, absolute crime statistics are not enough to determine how safe a state is, as Africa Check has regularly found. For example, comparing absolute crime figures between regions without taking population into account distorts comparisons. Doing so for all categories from the NBS’s 2017 crime statistics report makes it more difficult.

Experts have also said that lumping crimes together across states can mask the fact that certain crimes are more prevalent in certain regions. – Motunrayo Joel

Aiyedatiwa claimed that Ondo had Nigeria’s second-lowest level of multidimensional poverty, which is a measure of the complexity of poverty. 

This is assessed by the multidimensional poverty index (MPI). If one is deprived on a specified number of indicators, one is considered “MPI poor”.

“Generally, people are classified poor based on their income, but being multidimensionally poor includes having no health provision or educational attainment, among others,” Benedict Ndubisi Akanegbu, a professor of economics at the Nile University of Nigeria in Abuja, Nigeria's capital, told Africa Check.

The NBS released the country's first multidimensional poverty index in November 2022. It sampled 56,000 households nationally between November 2021 and February 2022 in the aftermath of the Covid pandemic.

The index is based on 15 indicators grouped into four dimensions: health, education, living standards, and work and shocks. It found that 62.9% of the population (133-million people) were multidimensionally poor.  

The index differs significantly from the 2019 poverty headcount, which found that 40.1% of Nigerians were poor, based on an official consumption expenditure poverty line of N137 430 (US$ 381.75) per person per year.

The NBS has “no plan to publish another poverty index soon”, Mathew said. 

Ondo state has the lowest incidence of multidimensional poverty

The index provided information at state levels. In Ondo state, 27% or 1.3-million people were classified as multidimensionally poor. This was the lowest level of multidimensional poverty in the country.

It was not, as Aiyetidawa claimed, the second least, meaning he missed a chance to claim more credit.

The state with the highest level of multidimensional poverty was Sokoto (90.5% or 5.81-million people). – Motunrayo Joel

Aiyedatiwa defended his frugal administration, claiming the state had not borrowed money since he became governor. Within 10 months of taking office, Ondo had become the “second least of states with high debt profile”, he said.

A state’s “debt profile” is its total debt at a given point in time, Godwin Okpara, a professor of finance at Abia State University, told Africa Check.

Nigeria's debt profile is managed by the debt management office (DMO), which publishes quarterly data.

When Aiyedatiwa became governor in December 2023, Ondo's debt was N71.5-billion ($89.5-million), according to the DMO.

The debt office is yet to release figures for October 2024. However, its latest report shows that the state's debt had fallen to N16.4-billion ($11.7-million) as of 31 March 2024, the second lowest.

According to the DMO, Jigawa had the lowest state debt profile, at N2-billion. The state with the highest was Lagos, at N929.4-billion. – Motunrayo Joel

Aiyedatiwa made the claim to highlight Ondo state's progress in reducing the backlog of pensioners' gratuities. This is a one-off lump sum paid on retirement to help people move from working to retired life.  

In August 2024, Aiyedatiwa was reported as saying his administration had started paying N3.2-billion ($2-million) to offset the backlog of retirees’ gratuities left unpaid by previous administrations. 

The governor also said the state government spent N1.2-million in January and another N1.18-billion between January and June 2024. 

This makes a total of N5.58-billion ($3.2-million) in the last 10 months.  

Retirees were indeed receiving payments from the state government, Ademola Olapade, the Ondo state chairperson of the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC), confirmed to Africa Check.

“Yes, retirees in the state have been receiving their money. The state government spends hundreds of-millions monthly paying retirees and workers. I can confirm that,” Olapade said.

We could not independently verify the claim or determine if the state government paid another half a-billion naira in gratuities within the time frame claimed by the governor. – Allwell Okpi

The governor claimed the state had no arrears to its workers. The issue was raised earlier this year, when Tope Fasua, a special adviser on economic affairs in the vice president’s office, claimed that Ondo owed workers up to six months worth of salaries. 

The state government issued a statement denying this and claiming that Fasua, who is from the state, had retracted his claim. (Note: The statement has since been deleted, but media reports can be seen here.) 

To find out the current situation, we asked Clement Fatuase, chairperson of the state’s Trade Union Congress, whether the state government was up to date with salary payments. 

“Yes, the state government or governor is not owing workers’ salary,” Fatuase said.

He added that the 2024 leave bonus had been paid and promotion letters for the year dispatched. 

The NLC's Olapade corroborated what Fatuase said, saying that the state government had been paying workers' salaries around the 25th of every month.

“The state government is doing well in terms of the payment of salaries. The governor is not owing workers. What is left now is the new minimum wage which is about to be implemented,” Olapade told Africa Check.

Therefore we rate the claim correct. – Allwell Okpi

Aiyedatiwa also claimed that the state had recruited hundreds of teachers since he took office.

Representing Aiyedatiwa at the launch of a project at a girls’ school on 15 March, Ondo state deputy governor Olayide Adelami said the administration had made a “huge investment in the education sector.” 

Adelami said this included approving “the recruitment of 2 000 teachers into both our primary and secondary schools”.

In April, the state recruited teachers for public primary schools, mostly in rural areas. More than 31 000 people reportedly applied for the 1 000 posts.

In May, the Ondo State Teaching Service Commission received at least 32 000 applicants for 1 000 teaching roles in public secondary schools.

The union leaders Africa Check spoke to said the 2,000 vacancies had been filled. – Allwell Okpi

Agboola Ajayi (PDP)

Ajayi said the insecurity in the state made it unsafe to farm and travel freely, citing killings across the state.

“All these are happening when my brother [Aiyedatiwa] is collecting N1.2-billion as security votes and has nothing to show for it,” he said.

Ajayi did not reveal the source of his claim during the debate despite being asked by Ayedatiwa and the moderator. He only said it was a public document. 

In Nigeria, security votes are monthly allocations to the president, governors and local government chairpersons to meet immediate security needs. They are separate from planned and off-budget defence spending. 

But they are also highly controversial because of their discretionary nature and the lack of transparency around them. Access to data on security votes in Nigeria is limited, making it difficult to verify claims about the funds available to each state and how they are spent.

To fact-check this claim, Ajayi’s campaign spokesperson, Fadaka, asked Africa Check to submit a freedom of information request to the state government.

A 2018 study on security votes and corruption by the anti-corruption watchdog Transparency International estimated that governors received N208-billion ($126.3-million) annually, while local government councils collected N20-million ($12.1-million).    

According to the report, Ondo state allocated 1.4% of its 2017 budget – equivalent to N2.4-billion ($1.4-million) out of N170.8-billion – to security votes.

Security votes are not meant to be confidential and should be open to the public for transparency, Emma Chukwuemeka, a professor of public administration and political studies at Nnamdi Azikiwe University in Akwa Ibom, south-east Nigeria, told Africa Check.

“The primary aim of the government at all levels is to protect the people, and the essence of giving them the security votes is to enable them to provide security for the people," Chukwuemeka said. 

With no credible data sources, publicly available evidence or credible media reports to support Ajayi’s claim about the cost of Aiyedatiwa’s security votes, we rate it as unproven. – Catherine Adeniyi

Ajayi claimed Ayedatiwa withdrew more than N1.2-billion (about $715 000) in the week of the Edo gubernatorial election.

Edo state elected a new governor on 21 September 2024 in a largely peaceful election. Edo lies to the east of Ondo in southwestern Nigeria. Both are among the eight states that hold off-cycle governorship elections due to litigation and court rulings. 

“In the month they conducted the Edo election, the governor of Ondo state drew more than N1.2-billion as a security vote,” Ajayi said. 

Ayedatiwa denied his opponent’s claim during the debate. 

“That is not true. There is a budget provision for everything you spend in government. How can you go outside the budget? If he wants to know the figure, let him check the budget. The budget is being published; it's on the net,” Ayedatiwa said.

In 2021, Business Day newspaper reported that Ondo state receives about N7.2-billion ($4.3-million) annually as a security vote. This is about N600-million per month.

According to the proposed 2024 budget for Ondo state, N9.42-billion ($5.64-million) was allocated for security votes. However, we could not independently verify how much the state drew as security votes in the week of the Edo state election in September 2024,. – Catherine Adeniyi

Debate moderator Seun Okinbaloye asked the two candidates what they had to show for hailing from two oil-producing councils in Ondo and how they would promote growth in the state. 

Ajayi is from the Esedo local government area while Aiyedatiwa is from the Ilaje LGA. 

In response, Ajayi accused Aiyedatiwa of “doing nothing” in his community despite having worked at the Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC) for “two to three years”.

The NDDC is a Nigerian government agency set up in 2000 to promote sustainable development in the oil-rich Niger Delta region.

In April 2018, under the presidency of Muhammadu Buhari, the Nigerian senate confirmed the appointment of three NDDC board nominees, including Aiyedatiwa, who represented Ondo state.

In August 2019, the president nominated a new 16-member board for the NDDC, which did not include Aiyedatiwa. The senate confirmed the new team in November.

The Ondo governor's official profile also states that he served at the NDDC from 2018 to 2019. The claim of up to three years is not supported. – Muktar Balogun

In response to one of the questions, Ajayi said the number of multidimensionally poor people in the state could be higher than the 27% figure given by the moderator, and gave his reasoning.

“Ondo state has no single industrialisation and no single company,” he said.

Industrialisation is the transformation of an economy from one based primarily on agriculture to one based on manufacturing and industry. 

Ondo state is widely recognised for its agricultural activities. But does it not have a single industry?

In 2020, the Nigeria Investment Promotion Commission reported the start of operations in the Ore Industrial Park.

A public-private partnership initiative between Hessmac Industry Limited and the Ondo state government, the park hosts various companies and manufacturing plants, according to its website. 

The 1 000-hectare park is expected to create an estimated 120 000 jobs. The  park lists 27 companies that have agreed to join the park due to the significant incentives. These include assemblers, cement producers and food processors.

In August 2024, the park said that six companies were “on the ground running” but did not name them. 

Africa Check contacted the park's managing director, Femi Akinkuebi, who said the park had over 12 functioning industries, including plywood manufacturers, textile, gypsum, ethanol and others.

Akinkuebi listed companies in several industries who had invested in the park and said Alles Charis Gas Limited was also building liquefied gas plants in the park.

It is also not clear what Ajayi meant by the state not having a “single functional company”.

Akanegbu of the Nile University of Nigeria said industrialisation was very important in any economy, especially for states, because it created jobs for the youth bulge.

“Nigerian states must come in and provide the necessary infrastructure amenities to encourage industrialists and investment,” he said. –Muktar Balogun

Seun Okinbaloye (debate moderator)

The moderator Seun Okinbaloye claimed that food inflation in Ondo state was at a multi-decade high of 37.2%. But do the facts bear him out?

Food inflation is the rise in the price of food commodities. A multi-decade high would mean that food inflation has been at its highest level for two or more decades, or at least 20 years.

The NBS tracks annual food inflation rates in several states through its consumer price index. The CPI calculates the rate of inflation that consumers experience on a daily basis. 

The data agency's most recent report, from September 2024, showed that Ondo’s food inflation rate was 37.2%. However, the NBS has no data on food inflation rates spanning two decades. The earliest we could find on its website was March 2012, when it was 32.7%.

We contacted the NBS to request data for the last two decades, and will update this report with their response. 

Akanegbu told Africa Check that cost-push inflation – where the increased costs of production, such as rising wages or raw material prices, lead to higher overall prices – may have contributed to inflation in Nigeria. 

However, he could not speak specifically to food inflation in Ondo state. – Precious Ewuji