The departure of two ultra-Orthodox parties from Israel’s government leaves Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu politically weakened just as he seeks a ceasefire in Gaza, military dominance in southern Syria and influence over US policy toward Iran.

Netanyahu will find himself at the helm of a minority government starting next week. Still, he remains in power and his government isn’t likely to be dissolved until at least late October, while new elections wouldn’t happen for three months after that.

The two parties — which bolted in protest at a bill ending exemption from military service of their community’s young men — have taken different approaches. Unlike UTJ’s outright walkout, Shas says it won’t seek to collapse the ruling coalition, giving the premier some leeway. And in just 10 days, the parliament breaks for three months, allowing time for Netanyahu to reconcile with one or both parties.

The most recent political crisis comes at a high-stakes moment for Israel and an especially challenging one for Netanyahu, whose political career hinges on persuading voters that the failure of October 7, 2023 has been overcome by military successes in Lebanon, Iran and across the region.

Moreover, the fight over draft waivers isn’t merely one of keeping the ultra-Orthodox Jews, or Haredim in Hebrew, satisfied that their men can choose religious study over conscription. Israel’s numerous battlefronts of the past 21 months have shown its military leaders that they can’t do without the tens of thousands of Haredim of draft age. Non-Orthodox Israelis are increasingly frustrated as they are called up for several tours of duty, often lasting months.

Even though the government’s term doesn’t end until October next year, the decisions it faces now are momentous, and making them without a clear majority government is already facing push-back among Israeli politicians.

Opposition Leader Yair Lapid called for early elections as soon as Shas announced Wednesday that its ministers were resigning. Israel cannot be run by an illegitimate government, he declared.

“A minority government cannot send soldiers to battle,” he said. “A minority government cannot decide who will live and who will die. A minority government cannot decide the fate of Gaza, reach arrangements with Syria or Saudi Arabia.”

In recent days, Israel has bombed Syria’s military headquarters in Damascus and parts of the neighbouring country’s south. Netanyahu’s and his ministers say the action was needed to prevent anti-Israel forces from gaining strength near the border and to help Syria’s Druze minority, which the Jewish state has pledged to protect.

Israel says the new Syrian administration of President Ahmed al-Sharaa has targeted the Druze in the governorate of Suwayda. Sharaa denies it and accuses Israel of trying to create “endless chaos” and weaken reconstruction efforts in a country that’s been devastated by almost 15 years of civil war.

Israel’s parliament, the Knesset, has 120 seats and until this week Netanyahu’s government controlled 68, a comfortable majority. UTJ’s walkout deprived him of seven seats. Shas controls 11, meaning that if it fully walked out, the government would have only 50.

Negotiations in Qatar over a ceasefire and hostage release complicate matters further. The indirect talks between Israel and Hamas have been stuck on a number of issues, especially on how much of a military presence Israel would keep in the Palestinian territory during a 60-day truce.

If a deal is reached in the coming weeks, other members of the Israeli government — far-right ministers Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich — have threatened to leave. They want the war against Hamas to continue until the group is destroyed and believe a truce would allow it to regroup.

They would likely have to wait until the return of the Knesset to be able to bring down the government. In theory that gives Netanyahu space to agree on a ceasefire, which US President Donald Trump has said he wants. But for Netanyahu, negotiating under such political threats will complicate his strategy.

Among Israelis, it’s widely expected there will be elections in the first half of 2026 and that Netanyahu will run again. Polls don’t predict a victory for him but the 75-year-old is the country’s longest serving prime minister and a master of political manoeuvring. Few people count him out, despite the latest blow from the ultra-Orthodox parties.

“People who aren’t Israeli say to me, I don’t understand how he survives when this happens and given how unpopular he is,” said Joshua Krasna, a former Israeli government official and a researcher at the Moshe Dayan Center of Tel Aviv University. “But it’s the rules of the political game. Public opinion almost doesn’t count as far as the coalition’s survival is concerned, because it’s the members of the Knesset who have to dissolve themselves.”