We contacted Swapo for the source of its claims and had not received a response at the time of publication. We will update this report when we hear back.

Income inequality refers to the difference between people’s incomes. It can be measured by comparing salaries or by the amount that people spend. The information is collected through surveys.

Income inequality is commonly measured using the Gini index or coefficient. This measure provides a figure between 0 (perfect equality) and 1 (perfect inequality).

According to a 2021 report from the World Bank, Namibia’s Gini coefficient was 0.64 in 1993/94. 

The figure is in line with the findings of Namibia’s 2015/16 Household Income and Expenditure Survey (NHIES), which put the Gini coefficient at 0.701 in 1993/94.

Dr Muna Shifa, a senior research officer at the University of Cape Town’s Southern Africa Labour and Development Research Unit, said the slight difference in the Gini estimates could be due to issues related to data comparability, which was common in developing countries. 

She added that sometimes researchers’ use of different approaches in the adjusting of the data could result in different estimates for the same year.

The World Bank report noted that income inequality in Namibia had steadily declined since the early 1990s. 

However, of the countries with available data, Namibia’s Gini coefficient of 0.576 in 2015 was second only to South Africa. Disparities in economic opportunities and access to services were large and widening, the report said.

This figure is in line with the 2015/16 NHIES, which recorded the Gini coefficient as 0.560. This is the latest survey available, with the next due to take place in 2025/26.   

Without more recent data, it’s difficult to determine Namibia’s current Gini coefficient. Therefore, we rate the claim as unproven. 

Poverty vs inequality 

Shifa told Africa Check that although inequality and poverty were closely related, they were not the same thing. Inequality focused on how a specific well-being (in this case, income) was distributed among a population, whereas statistics about poverty focused on deprivation or “what happens to the well-being of the section of the population living below a specific poverty threshold”.

It was possible for a country to decrease its poverty levels but still maintain a high Gini coefficient, she said.

Data on poverty in Namibia is collected as part of the NHIES. National poverty lines reflect thresholds below which someone cannot afford to meet their basic needs. 

The incidence of poverty in the country is estimated using the upper-bound poverty line, which includes both food and non-food essential items.  

While figures for 1990 could not be located, the available data suggests that in 1993/94, 69.3% of the population - the figure cited by Swapo - lived below the upper-bound poverty line of N$145.88. 

This is according to a 2012 report by the Namibia Statistics Agency. It noted that those in poverty were largely "women, subsistence farmers and pensioners", and disproportionately lived in rural areas.

According to the most recent NHIES, in 2015/16, 17.4% of Namibia’s population lived below the upper-bound national poverty line of N$520.80. 

This figure is the most recent but it is outdated and might not reflect the country's current situation. World Bank projections based on historical data estimate stagnation or slight increases in poverty in the years following 2015/16.

Africa Check contacted Prof Henning Melber, a distinguished researcher who has published extensively on Namibia’s socioeconomic and political environment. He said that looking at the country’s economic situation he “would assume nothing had changed significantly” in the years since this data was published. 

However, until more recent data becomes available, the current poverty rate remains unknown. We therefore rate the claim unproven.

According to official statistics from the first Population and Housing Census, the total number of employed persons was 388 014 in 1991. This category included people who earned an income (employers, employees and self-employed people), as well as unpaid family workers and other unstated work. The census counted “working” as at least one hour of labour “for pay, profit or family gain” during the reference period.   

Melber pointed out some complexities in the country’s employment data. He said that including people who worked for a small amount of time or in subsistence or informal work overestimated employment in the country.

The Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR), an independent non-profit research body based in Windhoek, raised a similar point in a 2003 analysis of employment trends. They calculated that when subsistence farmers and unpaid family workers were excluded, the total number of employed people was estimated at 166 104 in 1991.

The IPPR report also noted that the Walvis Bay area of Namibia, with a population of around 20 000 people, was excluded from this census, as it remained under South African control until 1993. At the time, the area included an estimated 7 132 employed people.

A 1994 report by Namibia’s labour ministry, using census data, estimated employment in the formal sector at 177 114 in 1991. The report used specialised definitions of formal sector employment, looking at wage-earning employees in some industries and not others, categories it noted were often overlapping. 

Because the figures vary based on the definition of employment used, “the data have to be handled with care", Melber said. Given these limitations, we have rated the claim unproven.

Recent data shows similar complications. The Namibia Statistics Agency’s (NSA) 2018 Labour Force Survey estimated the total number of employed people to be 725 742, the most recent statistic available and in line with Swapo’s claim. 

The survey defined “employed” as all persons of working age who were in paid or self-employment for a specified period (such as one week or one day). 

That data is also six years old and reflects employment figures before the Covid pandemic, a period when countries around the world experienced significant job losses.

The third national census was conducted in 2023 and provides estimates for key statistics around housing, education and income. However, unlike in the two previous census reports, Melber noted that unemployment data was not included. 

The timing of this omission, with just weeks to go before national elections, has been viewed by some analysts and opposition politicians as politically expedient for the ruling party. NSA statistician general, Alex Shimuafeni, said in a TV interview that the data would be released in due course. 

The census report did include a breakdown of household income or livelihood sources, showing that 55.6% of households received income from salaries or wages and businesses. The remainder were involved in commercial or subsistence farming or other activities, or received a form of grant, relief assistance or pension. 

But until the employment data is released, Swapo’s claim that “more than 725 000” people were employed in 2024 remains unproven.

Bitumen is a black and sticky substance, commonly known as tar or asphalt, used to make roads.

The World Economic Forum has recognised Namibia's high-quality roads. Corridors link Namibia to other African countries, such as Angola, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Botswana, South Africa, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

The Road Fund Administration, a state-owned entity that aims to manage a safe and efficient road sector in Namibia, publishes integrated annual reports on the road infrastructure in the country. 

Its latest report, for the year 2022/23, includes figures for all road networks by surface type, including bitumen roads, from 1990 onwards. 

In 1990, bitumen road surfaces totalled 4 572 kilometres.

According to the Road Fund Administration, Namibia’s national road network grew by 16.08% between 1990 and 2023. 

In 2023, bitumen road surfaces totalled 8 400 kilometres. Swapo missed a chance to claim a higher figure.

Human immunodeficiency virus, or HIV, attacks the body's immune system. If left untreated, HIV can develop into acquired immunodeficiency syndrome, or Aids, the most advanced stage of the disease.

It is spread from the body fluids of an infected person, including blood and breast milk. 

Although there is currently no cure for HIV, transmission can be prevented and the disease can be treated. Antiretroviral treatment (ART) can reduce the levels of HIV in a person’s body, to the point that it can no longer be detected. At this stage, it cannot be transmitted to sexual partners and is much less likely to be transmitted from mother to child.

Vertical or mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) is the transmission of HIV from a mother to a child during gestation, delivery or breastfeeding.

Swapo’s claim is that Namibia is the first African country and the first country with a high rate of people with HIV, where 99% of newborns have been born HIV-free. 

Namibia reaches bronze tier in May 2024

In May 2024, the World Health Organization (WHO) certified that Namibia had reached the bronze tier on its path to elimination of mother-to-child transmission of HIV. One requirement for reaching this milestone is that a country has just 750 or fewer “new paediatric HIV infections due to MTCT” per 100 000 live births. In other words, just 0.75% of all newborns may be HIV positive. 

When it awarded this certification, the WHO congratulated Namibia on being “the first country in Africa – and the first high-burden country in the world – to reach a significant milestone on the path towards eliminating vertical mother-to-child transmission of both HIV and viral hepatitis B”. This might sound like confirmation of Swapo’s claim but it is not.

Namibia achieved both the bronze HIV certification and a silver tier certification on the path to elimination of MTCT of hepatitis B. Hepatitis B is another viral disease which is commonly transmitted from mother to child. 

When it comes to HIV specifically, another country beat Namibia to the punch. In 2021, Botswana received a silver tier certification for HIV. Botswana is another African country with a high HIV burden, and the silver tier certification requires that a country record just 500 or fewer cases of MTCT of HIV per 100 000 live births (or a rate of 0.5%). This means that Botswana almost certainly reached the milestone of 99% HIV-free births ahead of Namibia.

Increased mobile coverage meant that a significant proportion of the population had internet access, Swapo claimed in its manifesto. This in turn enhanced access to information. 

Mobile network coverage represents the percentage of the population which lives within the range of a mobile network. Coverage of 0% would mean that no one could access a mobile network from where they live, while 100% would mean that mobile networks could reach everyone.

MTC (Mobile Telecommunications Limited) was the country’s first mobile service provider, founded in 1994. Swapo is therefore correct to claim that mobile network coverage was nonexistent in 1990. But has it increased to 94% as claimed?

According to the Communications Regulatory Authority of Namibia (CRAN) 2023 annual report, Telecom Namibia Limited and MTC are the main national telecommunications operators providing telecommunications services in the country. “Namibia boasts a high population coverage of 95%, enabling direct dialling to destinations worldwide,” the report notes. 

It isn’t clear whether this represents mobile network coverage specifically or whether some portion of this coverage includes fixed-line networks. The CRAN report notes that fourth-generation (4G) mobile communication technology stood at 85% nationally. Other mobile technologies could raise this level to 95%, but this isn’t clear in the report.

(Note: Africa Check contacted CRAN to request more detailed population coverage statistics and will update this report if we receive a response).

MTC alone claimed to have a population coverage of 97% as of 2022, with the aim of reaching 100% population coverage in the near future. Expecting to reach this milestone in 2023, MTC’s 2023/24 profile still claimed 97% coverage.

Mobile network coverage doesn’t always mean internet access

The 2023 Namibian census, conducted by the NSA asked whether households had access to various “communication assets” including phones and internet connectivity.

Less than 53% of households owned a smartphone, and 6.0% had access to one. Just over 30% of households owned a mobile phone, and 4.3% had access to one. 

Just 34.9% of households said they had access to mobile connectivity and 15.0% had access to home-fixed internet connectivity. The figures are significantly lower in rural areas. 

This report is produced as part of the work of a Namibian election coalition. Ahead of presidential and parliamentary elections in November 2024, the coalition aims to help voters critically engage with information and make informed decisions in the voting booth.