Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection (Mistra) director of research Susan Booysen noted on Tuesday that should current South African election trends continue, the number of provincial coalition governments may increase, with Mpumalanga and Free State being flagged for possible coalition governments after the 2029 general election.

Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal and the Northern Cape had coalition governments after the 2024 national and provincial elections, with varying experience, she noted.

Data from Mistra’s Coalitions Barometer II report, which monitors national, provincial, and local government coalitions in South Africa from 2023 to 2025, show that Limpopo and the Eastern Cape may remain safe African National Congress (ANC) bases, and that the North West may be “on the edge”, given the current election trends.

“These inter-election trends have been relentless, irrespective of prevailing interventions,” she stated.

The ANC, which has dominated South Africa’s democratic elections since 1994, lost its majority for the first time in 2024. It now forms the Government of National Unity (GNU) with the Democratic Alliance (DA), the Patriotic Alliance, Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), Good Party, Pan Africanist Congress of Azania, Freedom Front Plus, United Democratic Movement, Al Jama-ah and Rise Mzansi.

Booysen explained that in Gauteng and the Northern Cape, the ANC remained dominant, while in KwaZulu-Natal it became a minor partner that was overshadowed by the IFP.

In Gauteng, the ANC led a minority coalition with confidence-and-supply agreements by the Economic Freedom Fighters. In the Northern Cape, the ANC enlisted two small parties on confidence-and-supply understandings to give it a majority, she explained.

“Up to 2024, the ANC’s voting share had been trending downwards; its 2024 Gauteng vote shortfall was substantial. The Northern Cape saw an unexpected coalition, with the ANC’s vote shortfall being one legislature seat. That result confirmed that the causes of the ANC’s 2024 decline went beyond the uMkhonto weSizwe Party,” Booysen said.

The KwaZulu-Natal coalition government, comprising the IFP, ANC, DA and National Freedom Party (NFP), commands 41 of 80 seats in the provincial legislature.

Apart from the NFP’s inclusion (one seat), the configuration resembles that of the GNU, she noted.

She stated that the national GNU coalition government formula was a lifeline for the ANC in KwaZulu-Natal.

Meanwhile, the initial period of the 2024 provincial coalition governments was politically uneventful, with Booysen noting that coalitions remained steady, decision-making proceeded, and votes gained the majority.

“In KwaZulu-Natal, there was the brief possibility in April 2025 that the coalition might be affected by GNU upheaval. Since provinces take their policy lead from national, and there is a constitutionally mandated concurrence of key functions between national and provincial governments, policy coherence has not weighed heavily on the provincial coalition governments,” she said.

Booysen noted that since the ANC dominates its coalition partners in Gauteng and the Northern Cape, policy subservience and submission to the biggest partner, rather than coherence, became the rule.

In KwaZulu-Natal, the parties seemed united in instituting sound governance, moving towards balancing the province’s books and improving on essentials rather than engaging in policy grandstanding, she noted.

Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal and Northern Cape 2024 provincial coalition governments have avoided motions of no-confidence. The ANC in the Northern Cape and Gauteng is numerically strong enough to disable the DA from staging successful motions of no-confidence.

“…special votes – for example, budget votes – have also succeeded in obtaining the necessary majority votes,” she added.

Mistra Coalitions Barometer II report available at top of page for download