Ipsos sub-Saharan Africa Knowledge Director Mari Harris warned on Thursday that a low voter turnout in the upcoming elections will not be good for democracy, as she encouraged as many people as possible to exercise their right to vote.

She spoke with Polity following the recent Ipsos survey ‘Possible political party choices in the 2024 election’, which revealed that only 62% of eligible voters are registered to vote in the 2024 national and provincial elections.

She said while people are confused about which party to vote for or are unhappy about the choices before them and about issues facing the country, she said this was a chance to change this.

She acknowledged low morale among South African voters who felt that politicians did not care about them, but she said, “If you don’t go to vote you will always get a government you don’t deserve because you don’t contribute to choosing the government”.

“For me, a good percentage for turnout will be, probably, say north of the 60%: 64%, 66%, that will be fine. At least then we get a government that is responsible to the people who chose them,” she said.

She said the media had an important role to play in persuading more South Africans to register to vote.

The Independent Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC) recently announced November 18 and 19 as the Voter Registration Weekend where South Africans are encouraged to either register or check their details via the IEC registration portal.

Discussing the 15% of registered voters who had not aligned themselves with any political party and who were often indicated as those who would not vote, Harris said that over the last few years these voters had become “fed-up” with politicians.

She said this segment of voters had a low opinion of politicians and believed that they were only in politics to enrich themselves.

She said voters believed politicians were not addressing the issues that mattered to South Africans.

Harris also believes that voter education is crucial, sharing sentiments from African Transformation Movement leader Vuyolwethu Zungula, who said that the IEC should conduct voter education in rural communities, as many people from such areas don’t know much when it comes to the electoral process.

She said that there should be a programme in schools to educate learners about democracy and their responsibilities as persons living in a democracy.

“I feel that we also need to talk about young people because the proportion of young people who are registered to vote is low. They have no interest in politics and a lot of them say it is something for older people and they would rather have a demonstration. A lot of young people also say that unless a demonstration is violent, the government does not listen,” Harris revealed.  

Meanwhile, the Ipsos poll shows that the Multi-Party Charter – which comprises the Democratic Alliance, Inkatha Freedom Party, Freedom Front Plus, ActionSA, United Independent Movement, Independent SA National Civic Organisation, the Spectrum National Party and the African Christian Democratic Party – currently draws between 31% and 33% of voters at this stage.

Harris said voters should not read too much into that result as the country was still a long from the elections and people were likely to change their minds.

She said the survey was just to measure the state of the Multi-Party Coalition at this stage.

“You must remember that any survey is only true at the time it was conducted. I can’t ask you today who you would vote for and assume that eight months down the line you will still vote exactly the same,” she explained.

She said the surveys needed to be done regularly before an election to see how things shifted. 

The survey also predicted that a low voter turnout would work in favour of the African National Congress (ANC) and possibly push its support above 50%.

She predicted that many people in metropolitan areas and big cities would stay away on election day “whereas the ANC support is much more focussed in the rural areas”.

Harris told Polity that the ANC would then bus their rural supporters to voting stations and use that to their advantage more than other political parties.

When asked about the new dynamic which would see independent candidates contesting, she said that having independent candidates was necessary at this stage, even though they would not participate on a wide scope.

“In future, it can become better to have more independent candidates. This is also a function of the fact that people don’t have any trust in political parties anymore. They might vote for an independent candidate coming from an area advocating the interests of that area in Parliament,” she said.