More than three years after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, some of its global spillover effects continue to impact many low-income and lower-middle-income countries (LICs and LMICs). As the world faces new global shocks – such as aid cuts and rising US tariffs – this synthesis report draws lessons from Africa’s experience during the Russia–Ukraine war to help navigate external shocks.

The report finds that while the overall price shocks from the war at the continental level remain relatively low (around 0.2% of GDP), growth impacts vary significantly across countries depending on their exposure and level of resilience (e.g., policy space) to mitigate the impact of the shock. African countries that are heavily reliant on commodity imports, more integrated into global financial markets (e.g. with high levels of private capital flows and external debt), and already facing fiscal and debt vulnerabilities, have experienced more negative economic and social consequences. Within countries, the impacts have also varied, with women disproportionately affected in areas such as food security and access to clean energy.

Report by the Overseas Development Institute