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Kenya's economic lead: Fact-checking president William Ruto's Tanzania and Uganda comparisons


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Kenya's economic lead: Fact-checking president William Ruto's Tanzania and Uganda comparisons

Africa Check

13th May 2025

By: Africa Check

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Just days after saying correctly – but controversially – that neighbours Uganda and Tanzania are classified as “least developed countries” while Kenya is a lower middle-income country, president William Ruto made more comparisons. 

In a speech on 30 April 2025 at Cooperative University in the Kenyan capital Nairobi, he claimed that Tanzania’s economy was 50% the size of Kenya’s, while Uganda’s was “a quarter”. Ruto said that despite their smaller economies, both countries saved more in pension funds than Kenya. 

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And at Labour Day celebrations on 1 May, the president again spoke about savings, claiming that in just two years, he had raised Kenya's national savings to nearly match what had been saved since independence. 

Ruto, who took office in September 2022, further said that Kenya’s economy had surpassed Angola and Ethiopia during his time in office. 

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We checked the facts behind these statements.

Claim: “Uganda has a bigger social security fund than Kenya.”

Verdict: Correct

Ruto claimed that Uganda’s national social security fund (NSSF) was bigger than Kenya’s

The NSSF is a government pension scheme where workers and employers make monthly contributions towards retirement. It works similarly in Kenya and Tanzania.

As of 30 June 2023, NSSF Uganda’s most recent annual figures put accumulated contributions and interest at USh22-trillion (US$5.96-billion), and total assets at USh22.1-trillion ($6.01-billion). 

Kenya’s NSSF had total assets of  KSh402-billion ($3.09-billion), while member funds were KSh400-billion ($3.08-billion) as of 30 June 2024. 

Uganda’s fund is about twice the size of Kenya’s, so Ruto’s claim is correct. It is worth noting that Uganda’s NSSF also invests in Kenya, including in telecom giant Safaricom, banking transnational KCB and East African Breweries. – Makinia Juma

Claim: Compared to Kenya, “Tanzania has a bigger national social security fund …”

Verdict: Correct

The president also claimed Tanzania’s national security fund is bigger than Kenya’s. 

The latest available figures from Tanzania’s NSSF show that in 2022/23 it had assets worth TSh7.6-trillion ($3.3-billion at the average exchange rate of TSh2,310.20 to the dollar). 

At the time Kenya’s NSSF had KSh313.9-billion in assets, or $2.24-billion, if we use the 2023 average exchange rate of KSh139.85 to the dollar.

By 30 June 2024, Kenya’s NSSF had grown its assets to KSh402.2-billion ($3.1-billion). 

The 2024 data for NSSF Tanzania are unavailable. Still, based on the most recent records, Tanzania’s fund was larger, making Ruto’s claim correct. – Makinia Juma

Claim: Uganda’s economy is “a quarter [the size] of our economy”.

Verdict: Incorrect

A country’s economy is often measured by its gross domestic product (GDP), which is the market value of all goods and services produced in a given period, usually a year.

We checked Kenya and Uganda’s GDP using national statistics, the World Bank and International Monetary Fund (IMF) figures.

Kenya and Uganda 2023/24 GDP comparisons

 

Official data agency 

US$ equivalent

World Bank (2023)

IMF projections (2025)

Kenya

KSh16.2-trillion

$120.2-billion

$108-billion

$131.7-billion

Uganda

USh202.7-trillion

$53.7-billion

$48.8-billion

$64.3-billion

Note: In the  2023/24 financial year, one US dollar exchanged at an average of USh3,776.60 and KSh134.80. Numbers are rounded off.

The data shows that Uganda’s economy is 45% the size of Kenya’s – not “a quarter” as Ruto claimed.

Even the IMF’s data shows Uganda’s economy at 49% of Kenya’s. – Makinia Juma

Claim: Tanzania’s economy is “50%” of Kenya’s economy.

Verdict: Incorrect

We checked economic data with the official statistics and central banks of both Kenya and Tanzania, as well as 2023 World Bank data and 2025 IMF projections.

Comparison of Kenya and Tanzania GDPs

 

National data agency 

US$ equivalent

World Bank (2023)

IMF projections(2025)

Kenya

KSh15-trillion

$107.8-billion

$108-billion

$131.7-billion

Tanzania

TSh170-trillion

$73.7-billion

$79.1-billion

$86-billion

Note: In the fiscal year 2022/23, a US dollar exchanged at an average of TSh2,310.20 and KSh139.90. Numbers are rounded off.

Tanzania’s economy is between 65% to 73% the size of Kenya’s, not 50% as Ruto claimed. – Makinia Juma

Claim: “In Uganda, everybody saves 10% of their salary.”

Verdict: Misleading

Ugandan law says that employers contribute 10% of the employee’s gross salary to the NSSF, and employee’s 5%

So the 10% applies only to employers, not “everybody” as Ruto claimed, and certainly not to employees. 

We rate the claim as misleading. – Makinia Juma

Claim: “In Tanzania everybody saves 8% of their salary.”

Verdict: Incorrect

Tanzanian law sets the monthly contribution for each employee to the NSSF at 20 cents for every shilling of wages, while the employer's share is 10 cents.

This means that the total contribution is 20% of the employee's salary, with 10% being the employer's contribution and the other 10% from the employee. 

Ruto’s claim that each pays 10% is incorrect. Only employees pay that amount, and not 8% as he claimed.  – Tess Wandia

Claim: “Today, every Kenyan is saving 6% of their salary and every employer is saving on behalf of their employees 6% of their salary.”

Verdict: Correct

Kenya’s NSSF law requires both the employer and employee to contribute 6% of the employee’s monthly pensionable earnings, making a total of 12% 

Ruto was correct here. – Tess Wandia

Claim: “Everybody in Kenya used to pay NSSF KSh200 … and the employers used to pay for them KSh200 until 2023 – that is, two years ago.”

Verdict: Mostly Correct

Ruto said that Kenyan employers and employees used to contribute KSh200 ($1.50 at current rates) monthly to the NSSF – and that’s correct.

The law at the time required both parties to pay KSh200 each month, totalling KSh400 for the employee’s retirement. 

In 2013 the law was changed to increase contributions, so that every employer and employee pay 6% of the “employee’s monthly pensionable earnings”. But the increase was to be introduced gradually

However, the new law faced legal challenges and was only fully cleared in 2023, when the court ruled it constitutional and the NSSF ordered all employers to start following it.

It wasn’t always this way.

When Kenya’s NSSF started in 1965, both employees and employers paid KSh40 each monthly, making a total of KSh80 per month. 

By 1990, this had doubled to KSh80 each, or KSh160 total. 

In 2001 the fund adopted the structure that many Kenyans would recognise today. The contribution rose to KSh200 from both, to make a total of KSh400. –Makinia Juma

Claim: “Over a span of 60 years, we collectively as a nation managed to save KSh320-billion.”

Verdict: Understated

On 1 May 2025, Ruto claimed that the NSSF had only saved KSh320-billion in 60 years, calling the contributions too low. The fund marks 60 years of existence this year.

But that figure was already outdated. NSSF had reached KSh313.9-billion by mid-2023, and by June 2024 the fund had grown to KSh402.2-billion. – Tess Wandia

Claim: “In just two years from 2023 up to 2025, today we have mobilised 280-billion in national savings.”

Verdict: Incorrect

According to NSSF’s latest report, member contributions rose from KSh26.87-billion in 2022/23 to KSh62.29-billion in 2023/24, thanks to the new higher rates under the revised law.

Kenya insert

Source: NSSF annual report for financial year 2023/24

Between July 2022, the end of the financial year before Ruto took office, and June 2024, the NSSF collected KSh89.16-billion.

For Ruto’s 2025 claim about savings grown in his tenure to be accurate, NSSF would have had to have collected KSh190.8-billion – three times what it collected in a year, which is unlikely

NSSF’s 2024/25 target is KSh482-billion, and its assets were KSh286-billion in 2022 – an increase of KSh196-billion. 

If Ruto meant total national savings, the latest data shows growth from KSh717.3-billion in 2022 to a provisional figure of KSh945.5-billion, an increase of KSh228.2-billion. 

We therefore rate this claim as incorrect. – Tess Wandia

Claim: “Kenya's savings to GDP ratio currently stands at between 10 and 12%.”

Verdict: Correct

On 30 April, Ruto said: “Just to give you statistics, savings as a percentage of GDP in Kenya today is between 10 and 12%.” 

The president repeated the stat on Labour Day, adding that the range depended “on the calculation you apply”. 

The savings-to-GDP ratio, or national savings rate, shows how much of a country’s income is saved instead of spent. A high ratio means the country has more money to invest in things like infrastructure, education and healthcare.

A low ratio may suggest that most of the income is being used up on spending, leaving less for future investment.

According to Kenya’s national treasury, savings as a share of GDP was 13.1% in 2022/23 and 13% in 2023/24

By calendar year, it was 14.2% in 2022, 11.2% in 2023 and an estimated 12.3% in 2024. It is projected to fall to 12.3% in 2025.

The World Bank reported Kenya’s gross domestic savings at 12.4% of GDP in 2022 and 11.1% in 2023. 

Ruto’s fall within these ranges, so we rate the claim mostly correct. – Makinia Juma

Claim: “Savings as a percentage of GDP in China … is 55%.”

Verdict: Incorrect

In his 30 April speech, Ruto, who had just returned from China, compared Kenya’s savings rate to that of China. He claimed China saved 55% of its GDP. 

However, World Bank data shows China’s gross domestic savings rate was 44.3% of GDP in 2023, the most recent year for which data is available. The figure has stayed 44% and 46.6% since 2019, reflecting a strong tradition of saving. – Makinia Juma

Claim: “In 2022, Kenya was the eighth-largest economy [in Africa].”

Verdict: Unproven

For comparative data, we checked the World Bank and the IMF

Africa’s top 10 economies in 2022 (US$-billion)

Rank

Country

World Bank

IMF

1

Nigeria

477.4

476.5

2

Egypt

476.8

475.2

3

South Africa

406.9

406.8

4

Algeria

225.6

225.7

5

Morocco

131

131

6

Ethiopia

126.8

119

7

Kenya

114.4

114.7

8

Angola

104.4

142.4

9

Tanzania

75.8

74.2

10

Ghana

74.3

73.9

According to the World Bank, Kenya was seventh on the continent, ahead of Angola. According to the IMF, Kenya ranked eighth, with a significantly smaller GDP. 

We have contacted both the World Bank Angola office, and the IMF to understand this discrepancy. 

Until we get clarity, we rate the claim as unproven. –Tess Wandia

Claim: “In two-and-a-half years, we have managed to overtake Angola. We have managed to overtake Ethiopia.”

Verdict: Unproven

World Bank data shows that Kenya’s economy has surpassed Angola’s. As of 2022, Ethiopia was far ahead of Kenya. 

IMF data, however, shows Kenya overtook Angola in 2023 and Ethiopia in 2024.

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We’ve contacted the World Bank and the IMF to clarify the differences. – Tess Wandia

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