South African inflation slowed to an almost five-year low in March, taking it below the floor of the central bank’s target range.

The consumer price index rose 2.7% last month from a year earlier versus 3.2% in February, Pretoria-based Statistics South Africa said in a statement on its website on Wednesday. That was less than the 3% median estimate of 15 economists in a Bloomberg survey.

Policymakers, who aim to anchor inflation expectations around the midpoint of their 3% to 6% target range, will likely remain cautious because of the impact US President Donald Trump’s trade war may have on inflation and the rand.

Reserve Bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago last week warned that confidence in the global economy has been dimmed by trade tensions and South Africa would not escape from the fallout.

“Risks to domestic inflation and growth have risen markedly since the start of the year,” Kganyago said at the release of the central bank’s biannual monetary policy review.

He also expressed concern over a 0.5 percentage point increase in value-added tax that is due to come into effect on May 1. The central bank’s research suggests the increase that is expected to be followed by another 0.5 percentage point hike next year, may add 0.2 percentage points to headline inflation annually.