Be it apartheid, State capture or even the Government of National Unity, South Africans know first-hand the importance and influence of politics on all aspects of life.

There is a strong expectation, therefore, that the astonishing return of President Donald Trump to the White House will be a tumultuous four years not only for Americans but South Africans and Africans too. Even if the tumult is muted somewhat after the 2026 midterm elections, when a strongly divided US electorate will have an opportunity to offer an early verdict on Trump’s second coming.

If implemented on a sustained basis that Trump’s flurry of executive orders does not guarantee, the new administration’s extreme tariff, energy, environmental and immigration policies will cause far-reaching damage.

Besides further undermining already weak multilateral agreements and institutions, they will raise the cost of doing business and living in the US and could well do likewise elsewhere should countries retaliate unthinkingly.

Given Trump’s open hostility towards the Brics bloc, the trade consequences for South Africa could be acute, and the damage could be amplified should policymakers react with trade remedies that carry the risk of long-lasting unintended consequences.

While the technoeconomic fundamentals of the energy transition are unlikely to be dislodged by Trump’s “drill, baby, drill” policy stance, the pace of the transition is likely to be affected as fossil-fuel incumbents seek to take advantage of the political tailwinds.

The implications for climate mitigation and adaptation are far more serious, with Trump’s exit from the Paris Accord presaging a backsliding at a time when an acceleration is urgently needed. Temperatures have already risen above those thresholds that scientists warn carry extreme risks; ones that are ironically already materialising in deadly hurricanes and fires in the US itself.

Given America’s outsized cultural influence, there is also a genuine risk that several of Trump’s regressive social policies will infiltrate domestic political discourse and campaigns, especially those relating to gender identity, the rights of women and the treatment of foreigners. South Africa’s rights-based Constitution offers some safeguards here, but it is likely to be challenged, possibly even to breaking point.

So how should South Africa respond to Trump 2.0?

There is no question that South Africa’s standing has waned on the back of corruption, xenophobia and an enduring economic malaise. Nevertheless, the country continues to punch above its weight in global affairs and its influence will rise again this year, given that it will be hosting the G20 in Johannesburg, before handing over the baton to the US.

For this reason, South Africa’s response will have to be both measured and values based, no matter how tempting, or even politically popular, knee-jerk reactions may be.

The country’s response should be grounded, instead, in South Africa’s long-standing commitment to diplomacy and international cooperation, as well as evidence-based warnings against ‘beggar thy neighbour’ policies and any further retreat into extreme isolationism.

In so doing, we can become a beacon of multilateralism amid fracturing storms.