Protests show that citizen-led power, if sustained, could pressure governments to implement meaningful and sustainable reforms.

On 1 November, incumbent Samia Suluhu Hassan was declared the winner of the Tanzanian elections with 98% of the vote. Such wide margins have come to be associated with authoritarian and competitive authoritarian regimes in Africa, such as in Rwanda and Equatorial Guinea.

The reaction from election observers and the international community was mixed. The African Union expressed concern about the loss of life but congratulated the president. United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres called for restraint and investigations into post-election violence – a sentiment shared by the European Union.

A joint statement by Canada, the United Kingdom, and Norway acknowledged reports of many fatalities following the elections. The Southern African Development Community (SADC), of which Tanzania is a member, was concerned that its observer teams reported incidents of violence and police firing weapons. The Mo Ibrahim Foundation criticised the constrained environment in which the polls were held.

The elections occurred in a context where the main opposition leaders were jailed and disqualified. With a constrained political space, restricted media, and the arrest and abduction of critics, a landslide victory was predicted for the ruling party Chama Cha Mapinduzi. However, the widespread protests that followed were unprecedented in a country that had experienced relative stability in an often-turbulent region.

Protests occurred in various locations, including the commercial capital, Dar es Salaam, as well as Arusha, Mbeya and Mwanza. The uprising is a culmination of years of frustration, anger and grievances among Tanzanians over issues related to electoral injustices and state repression.

With major opposition parties and political figures such as Chama Cha Demokrasia na Maendeleo (CHADEMA) Chairperson Tundu Lissu and Deputy Chair John Heche absent, the protests by ordinary citizens reflected widespread anger at the election process. Lissu is facing treason charges; Heche was arrested and detained before the polls.

Although there was significant online mobilisation on 29 October, election day, the spontaneity and reach of the uprisings were unexpected. They began early and gained momentum in subsequent days. As the protests persisted, widespread killings of demonstrators were reported in the midst of an internet shutdown and local media blackout. Various reports, as well as SADC’s preliminary statement on the elections, say police fired at demonstrators.

The main message from protesters, largely the youth, is concern over electoral injustices, increased authoritarianism, and governance issues such as corruption and the capture of state institutions. This resonates with recent youth-led protests in Cameroon, Madagascar, Morocco and Kenya. These demonstrations show the growing agency of young people in driving socioeconomic and political discourse.

About 65% of Africa’s population is under 35 – a demographic profile that is reshaping political discourse in many countries. Figures show that around 77% of Tanzania’s population is under 35, and over half is below 18. As in many African countries, these young people are educated, but often face limited opportunities in the formal economy. Among the youth especially, high living costs have increased anger.

Since Tanzania’s return to multiparty politics in 1992, the number of registered voters has risen from 8.9 million in 1995 to 37.6 million in 2025. Despite this increase, especially among first-time voters, their options have remained largely unchanged, amid increased state repression of opposition parties and a decline in democracy.

Up to now, mass protests in Tanzania have been unthinkable. Any form of citizen or opposition parties’ assembly has been disrupted, sometimes violently, by security forces. The shrinking political space, media censorship and a powerful ruling party made it difficult for Tanzanians to express dissent. Restrictive laws silenced civil society, non-governmental organisations and the media.

Another layer of frustration has been disillusionment over years of electoral manipulation, which has rendered elections almost meaningless. This is evident in Samia’s wide winning margin of 98% and that of former president John Magufuli’s 84% in the 2020 polls. These factors, together with a growing youth clamour for change in Africa, fed the protests.

The reform campaign by Tanzania’s opposition appears to have resonated with the public, as seen in these latest uprisings. There have been demands for reforms in electoral management and on other critical governance, institutional and legal issues. Piecemeal reforms that Samia initiated in her first years as president lacked institutional anchorage. The opposition has consistently argued that a new constitution is the only way to consolidate these reforms.

There is a fundamental shift in the way elections are being conducted in Africa, with similar patterns of incumbent control resulting in post-poll protests. The demonstrations in Tanzania serve as a warning to many African governments that hold elections in authoritarian environments. Post-election protests in Côte d’Ivoire, Cameroon, and Mozambique demonstrate the extent of voter dissatisfaction with fraudulent electoral processes.

A 2024 Afrobarometer report indicates strong support for democracy (66%) in Africa. Still, it is concerning that 53% say they would tolerate military intervention if political leaders abused their power. Another worrying observation from the survey is the youth’s tolerance of military takeovers. Growing dissatisfaction with recent elections could consolidate these views.

Tanzania’s protests mirror a disturbing general trend in Africa’s democratic trajectory, where optimism after the third wave of democratisation in the 1990s is being replaced by electoral authoritarianism.

While Tanzania’s protests may not immediately lead to changes in government, they reveal the extent of citizen-led power. If sustained, this power could pressure governments to implement meaningful and sustainable reforms, as seen after Kenya’s 2024 Gen Z protests that forced the government to drop the controversial finance bill. Going forward, the demand for a new constitution should be the priority for Tanzania.

Written by Nicodemus Minde, Researcher, East Africa Peace and Security Governance, ISS Nairobi