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The SACCI’s Business Confidence Index (BCI) averaged 121.7 for the year 2025. This is the highest annual average recorded since 2013 when the BCI measured 122.2. After dipping to 113.2 in June 2025, the BCI recovered strongly from August 2025 onward to reach 133.2 in December 2025. The BCI declined slightly in January 2026 but still recorded a healthy level of 131.4. The January 2026 BCI was 11.4 index points higher than a year ago but 1.8 index points lower than in December 2025. 

This high level of the business confidence index was not the result of a broad-based improvement in the business climate. The year-on-year improvement was notably the result of particularly strong increases in overseas tourists, high global precious metal prices, share prices on the JSE, and new vehicle sales. These increases were to a large extent affected by an uncertain global economic situation, positive financial market developments and easier local financial conditions. 

Between December 2025 and January 2026 (month-on-month), three of the fourteen BCI sub-indices, namely, manufacturing, merchandise export volumes, and the number of new vehicles sold negatively echoed through the business climate. Five sub-indices supported a positive business climate, and six sub-indices had a neutral effect. The passivity of notably real economic sub-indices is of concern. 

In the short-term (month-on-month) the broad financial climate was leaning towards a positive business climate. Real economic activity was however uneasily balanced and negatively orientated. Over the medium term (year-on-year) the sub-indices on the financial environment were in support of an improved business climate and augmented by real economic activity with only one sub-index (export volumes) pointing south. 

The exceptional increase in business confidence towards 2025 year-end and into 2026 provides an important opportunity to convert positive business sentiment into real action. It is however important that all spheres of the public sector deliver on practical service delivery. A further opportunity is forthcoming from Budget 2026 and resultant action. Time is running out for structural economic policy adjustments that could attract local and foreign fixed investment.

Budget 2026 will be an important occasion (25 February 2026), given this intersection in global and local economic developments. Where the MTBPS gave an overview of the spending priorities of the consolidated national government, provincial governments and social security funds, the Budget’s main emphasis is on the revenue side. The Budget is also an important statement with regard to government economic policy and investor assurance.

Issued by SACCI