The growing pool of disaffected youth could test the ruling party’s grip on power, especially as succession questions loom.

The Republic of the Congo’s 15 March presidential elections will be a tightly controlled affair dominated by the ruling Parti Congolais du Travail (PCT). Incumbent President Denis Sassou Nguesso, 82, is seeking a fifth consecutive elected term since his return to power after the civil war between 1993 and 1999.

Like previous polls, the outcome is unlikely to change the country’s political trajectory. Elections in Congo-Brazzaville have followed a consistent pattern, featuring a first-round victory by the incumbent, a fragmented opposition and a crackdown on civic space and dissent.

Rather than allowing for political change, this month’s polls will likely return the ruling party to power, while economic problems continue and questions grow about the country’s leadership. The ruling party lacks a united front on a future president, setting the scene for internal political divisions.

Sassou Nguesso is one of Africa’s longest-serving rulers. He first took office in 1979 under a one-party system. After losing the 1992 multi-party election, he reemerged on the political stage in 1997 through military force and has won all elections since.

In 2002 and 2009, he secured more than 85% and 78.61% of the national vote, respectively. The polls were marred by allegations of voter rigging after most opposition members were either excluded or dropped out of the process.

Through constitutional reforms – notably the removal in 2015 of age limits and term restrictions – Sassou Nguesso extended his rule through the 2016 and 2021 elections. The opposition contested the results of both polls.

Following the 2016 election, opposition leaders Michel Mokoko and André Okombi Salissa were arrested for ‘undermining internal state security.’ And in 2021, voters in some areas complained that their names were not on the electoral list and that internet access was cut. Across these electoral cycles, results have consistently delivered first-round victories to the incumbent with little meaningful competition.

The PCT exerts extensive power over the country’s political and electoral machinery. Led by Henri Bouka since 2005, the Independent National Electoral Commission favours the incumbent, driving scepticism among opposition parties about its independence and neutrality.

Congo-Brazzaville’s political arena and civic space continue to deteriorate. In 2023, the prefect of Brazzaville issued a decree prohibiting the opposition party Mouvement Républicain from holding a meeting, which it said would ‘damage social fabric and disrupt public tranquility.’

The regime has also been accused of abductions and repression of opposition members, narrowing the pool of competition in the upcoming polls. In May last year, armed masked men abducted opposition leader and presidential candidate Lassy Mbouity, who was found tortured days later, sparking accusations against the regime and condemnation from civil society. He is not running this year.

These conditions make a ruling party win in March likely. Of the six opposition candidates running, three competed in previous elections without making much difference, while the other three are running for the first time with little popular support. As with the reelection of President Paul Biya in Cameroon in October 2025, Congolese should expect political continuity marred by internal divisions within the ruling party.

Beyond the crackdown on dissent, the resilience of the current system will depend less on authoritarian rule and more on the government’s capacity to navigate mounting economic and social pressures.

Sassou Nguesso’s political dominance has been largely sustained by oil revenue, which has financed patronage networks and secured loyalty from the country’s elite, while civilians get poorer. As a major producer in sub-Saharan Africa, Congo-Brazzaville’s crude oil reserves generate around 50% of the government’s revenue and 90% of its export earnings.

Despite this, nearly half (46.5%) of the population lives below the international poverty line of US$2.15 per day, and one in three people is food-insecure. Meanwhile, although rates have declined, the country’s public debt ratios stood at 93.5% as of 2024. Youth unemployment hovers around 40%, with 60% of the population under 25.

The growing pool of economically marginalised civilians, especially youth, will most likely test the ruling party’s grip on power in the near future, especially as succession questions loom.

The 2015 constitution’s introduction of five-year presidential terms, renewable twice with no upper age limit, effectively reset Sassou Nguesso’s term count, enabling him to extend his rule.

Though he will likely remain in power for the foreseeable future, an extended incumbency or a family succession may be problematic. Reports reveal that International Cooperation Minister Denis-Christel Sassou Nguesso – the president’s son who has struggled to win the hearts of the party’s leadership – is probably next in line to rule.

Other party members, including Jean-Dominique Okemba and Sassou-Nguesso’s cousin Jean-Jacques Bouya, are most likely to challenge the president’s son. Instability could emerge from political divisions within the ruling party or the mobilisation of the opposition.

Despite a potentially predictable election outcome, the state must maintain an open process by facilitating African Union-coordinated external observer missions to ensure a minimum of credibility.

Beyond that, the country needs an expanded political space that guarantees meaningful participation by opposition parties and civil society actors. This must include the immediate release of all political prisoners and detained journalists, reaffirming respect for fundamental freedoms and the rule of law.

The government also needs to diversify the economy to reduce poverty and unemployment. This requires bold investment in infrastructure development without increasing public debt and dependency on foreign aid.

Written by Remadji Hoinathy, Senior Researcher, Central Africa and Lake Chad Basin, ISS & Nirvaly Mooloo, Research Officer, Central Africa and Lake Chad Basin, ISS