The decision by US President Donald Trump to implement ‘reciprocal tariffs’ of 30% on those South African goods not specifically exempted or subject to sector-specific duties is a major blow economically and politically.

Economically it’s devastating, especially for those automotive and agricultural exporters that have historically been granted duty-free access either under the Most Favoured Nation regime or under the now all-but-defunct African Growth and Opportunity Act; a system set up to leverage trade rather than aid to address prevailing economic imbalances between a superpower and poor African countries, not to eliminate trade deficits.

The US is a crucial market, with South Africa having exported goods valued at $14.9-billion to America in 2024, while importing goods valued at $5.8-billion. America, meanwhile, enjoys a trade surplus in services, having exported $3.52-billion to South Africa last year, against South African exports of $2.19-billion.

The tariffs are a double whammy for South African exporters, which will face increased competition in third-country markets, as all those facing higher American trade barriers scramble for new customers.

Politically this outcome is equally problematic, given that South Africa has hitherto been able to punch above its diplomatic weight largely because of a lingering halo effect from the country’s historic transition from apartheid to democracy.

While successive South African governments have done far too little to maintain that halo’s shine, particularly because of a lack of seriousness in tackling crime and corruption, it had not been fully extinguished.

This has changed with the return of Trump, who doesn’t view South Africa’s approach to racial redress as a constructive response to past and prevailing inequality. Instead, he sees it as a direct affront to the ‘again’ in his ‘Make America Great Again’ philosophy, which is nostalgic for a return to a perceived America of the past, but also has strong exclusionary undertones.

Hence, South Africa, which was treated with great respect and even admiration by successive US administrations, is now being treated with suspicion and scorn. Even the diplomatic skills of President Cyril Ramaphosa have had little to no effect, as was on international display during that ‘dim the lights’ Oval Office exchange on May 21.

While South Africa has not given up on securing a new trade deal before the August 1 implementation date, exporters must now prepare for the worst-case scenario.

Should there be no change, South Africa’s so-called ‘Butterfly’ trade and export strategy will have one seriously broken wing. While the body of that butterfly is said to be rooted in Africa, with wings reaching westward and eastward, in reality intra-African trade is still at a larval stage, despite important progress under the African Continental Free Trade Area.

Given the infrastructural bottlenecks, any rapid increase in trade on the continent will be constrained for many years yet. South Africa, thus, will need to act swiftly to develop its eastern wing, which is likely to further antagonise the current US administration.

Yet what choice does it now have?