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The business climate improved over the short-term as well as the medium-term, with the SACCI BCI increasing month-on-month by 1.1 index points and year-on-year by 10.9 index points to 121.1 index points in September 2025. The decline of the BCI from the high level of 125.8 in February 2025 to 113.2 in June 2025 was in part reclaimed in August and September 2025, as the BCI measured 120.0 and 121.1, respectively.

In the short-term (month-on-month), the broad financial climate was mainly in support of positive business sentiment, while real economic activity was fairly stable but with negative elements. Over the medium term (year-on-year), real economic activity and the financial environment, on balance, were more positive than a year ago.

The most positive short-term impacts on business sentiment in September were made by more overseas tourists, the rising global price of gold and platinum, an increase in the volume of merchandise exports, an increased number of new vehicles sold, and share prices on the JSE rising beyond the medium-term trend. The decrease in merchandise export volumes was the only noteworthy negative impact on business sentiment recorded over the year to September 2025.

South Africa has specifically been affected by the continuation of the AGOA agreement and a tariff of 30% levied on South African exports to the USA. The final outcome will depend on further trade negotiations. At this stage, uncertainty weighs on economic activity, as deadlines for AGOA and a trade agreement with the USA tariffs expire without substantial permanent agreements and progress. The trade tariff regime and the imposition of reciprocal tariffs have not yet entirely found their way into recent economic data.

The SACCI BCI for September 2025 confirms the financial stability that underpins the improved level of business sentiment. It, however, remains for real economic activity and investor confidence to follow through on the improved financial environment.

At present, South Africa is experiencing a financially stable opportunity that has to find its linkages to real economic activity and employment. The financial environment stabilised business sentiment, but the objective should remain to revisit some outdated and inappropriate approaches to economic policy and implementation. Improved business confidence should serve as a catalyst for increased fixed investment levels in support of sustainable economic growth, employment, and broader participation in the value-added process or output of the economy.        

Issued by SACCI