Support for the African National Congress (ANC), which ruled South Africa outright for three decades after apartheid rule ended, has slipped further since it lost its parliamentary majority in last year’s elections and now lags that of its main rival for the first time, a new opinion poll showed.

Of 807 respondents canvassed by the Institute of Race Relations (IRR) by phone between March 27 and April 3, some 29.7% said they backed the ANC and 30.3% the business friendly Democratic Alliance (DA). Support for the DA among registered Black voters jumped to 18% from 5%. The poll had a margin of error of about 4%.

The ANC’s political dominance has been steadily eroded by public dissatisfaction over inadequate government services and high levels of poverty and unemployment. The party garnered 40.2% backing in the May 2024 elections and the DA 21.8%, and they then teamed up to form a so-called government of national unity with eight smaller rivals.

The coalition’s two main members have sparred over health, education and land-expropriation laws and plans by the National Treasury to raise value-added tax, raising questions about the durability of their alliance. The country is due to hold municipal elections next year, while the next national vote is scheduled for 2029.

“The potential emergence of a politics defined by socio-economic concerns rather than identity-based grievance is one of the standout features of the latest polling,” the IRR said. 

The responses reflect “mounting public dissatisfaction with the ANC’s insistence on raising VAT. The DA’s participation in the GNU, coupled with its prominent opposition to the tax hike, appears to have boosted its national appeal,” it said.