Analysis in brief: Commercial activity at any African port is a direct gauge of the host nation’s trade health and a broader indicator of its foreign alliances – whether regional, continental or international. The African Continental Free Trade Area is becoming a reality, evidenced by the changing shipping routes around the continent.

Seaports provide an infrastructure snapshot of a country’s economic activity at any given time. The volume of vessels that leave ports, their destinations and their types of cargo can reveal much about a country’s agricultural outputs, industrial activities, and even employment fortunes. In late 2025, after the US implemented higher trade tariffs on 8 August 2025, African exports to the US were greatly reduced, compelling African nations on their ongoing search for new markets, both through intra-Africa trade and overseas. Changing shipping patterns will affect port infrastructures; however, these shifts in international markets can take time to develop into a full picture.

Negotiating new trade agreements with new countries to find alternative customers for exported African products is a lengthy and complicated process. Similarly, activity on shipping routes are as slow to adapt to political challenges unless they are emergencies like Houthi terror attacks on ships in the Red Sea.

The complicated processes of both finding new markets and new shipping patterns are exemplified by the current challenges faced by South Africa’s citrus industry. This situation also illustrates how adaptable port infrastructure can be and whether it can meet the difficulties of new shipping paradigms.

Africa’s top ports driving global trade capacity growth
Data courtesy: APM Terminals, Alexandria Containers, EHS Africa Logistics, Engineering News, IFC, Marsa Maroc, Port Technology, Tanger Med Port, Til Group, Transnet Port Authority, Wiki Commons, 2025

The consequences of sudden trade shifts

US trade restrictions have reduced shipments of South African citrus exports to the US by nearly one-third. Citrus exports require phytosanitary testing and certification because importing countries are particularly vigilant about citrus pests. Thus, producers cannot simply pivot to new markets overnight as these requirements cannot be instantly satisfied. Up to a third of new citrus trees planted in 2024 were intended for US markets and will likely be chopped down.

For an assessment of the citrus situation in South Africa, it is not necessary to go to the orchards of Mpumalanga Province. Most South African citrus exports leave from the Port of Durban on the Indian Ocean. A perennial problem has been port traffic congestion as citrus-bearing trucks arrive during the harvest season (from June through September). This problem has lessened this year, although it is a ‘benefit’ that is certainly pyrrhic. Because of fewer shipments to the US, vessels once dominated by loads of citrus are sailing away with less of this cargo. While negotiations are underway with China to purchase more South African citrus, progress is slow compared to the immediate loss of US buyers. In particular, US importers have cancelled their orders for South African mandarin oranges because they are now more expensive by 30%, turning instead to Chile and Peru, where the US tariff is only 10%.

Shipping lines are also affected by abrupt global trade changes. There was concern amongst South African companies after the U.S. levied a 30% tariff on South African goods on 8 August, the Swiss-owned MSC line would suspend its plan to double the number of ships sailing directly from South Africa to the US on a new express route that has been years in the making. Routing and committing ship resources to those routes requires long-term planning, not easily cancelled or amended. Rather than ships idling at port, MSC prefers to have them sail with diminished cargo loads. Another major shipping line, Maersk, has adopted the opposite strategy. Maersk has suspended all direct shipping from South Africa to the US. Instead, South African goods use other lines and bring goods to European ports like Antwerp and Rotterdam, where they are transshipped to the US. These ports are already congested by shipping rerouted from the Suez Canal and passage through the dangerous Red Sea. Congestion means delays, which can be fatal for time-sensitive perishables like citrus.

Rather than vessels idling at port, the Mediterranean Shipping Company prefers to have their vessels sail with diminished cargo loads. By contrast, another major shipping line, Maersk, has adopted the opposite strategy: Maersk has suspended all direct shipping from South Africa to the US, rather choosing to tranship their cargo to European ports, such as Antwerp and Rotterdam. These ports are already congested by shipping rerouted from the Suez Canal because of the dangers in the Red Sea. Congestion means delays, which can be fatal for time-sensitive perishables like citrus.

Intra-Africa trade will bring greater activity to freshwater ports

Port authorities throughout Africa are continuing with their current expansion and maintenance plans, with no announcements yet about infrastructure changes in anticipation of new trade patterns. If there are any ports that should ensure their infrastructure is prepared for greater activity, it is the ports on the great lakes, such as Lake Malawi and Lake Victoria, and river ports like those in Brazzaville and Kinshasa. The Niger and Nile Rivers are also extensively utilised for commercial shipping. All have ports with cargo handling capacities, and trade trends point to greater freshwater cargo transport throughout Africa.

Rather than waiting to absorb the shock of global trade decisions made elsewhere, African economies can take control of their own growth. One way to do this is for African governments to coordinate their public procurement spending so that other African countries can supply these needs. Currently, public procurement spending constitutes 17% of Africa’s GDP. This is just one example of the lucrative internal market into which Africa can tap.

African trade experts are calling for the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) to be urgently implemented to reduce Africa’s dependence on US and other foreign markets. Once the AfCFTA is to be fully implemented, there will be a need for 100 new shipping vessels estimated by shipping analysts to carry cargo between countries. If these vessels can be sourced locally, it will be a financial advantage to Africa’s principal ship building facilities in Kenya, Morocco, Namibia and South Africa. The vessels will sail between Africa’s large ocean and Mediterranean ports and also between inland ports.

Although, the global trade realignment has brought uncertainty and short-term financial strain to Africa, the AfCFTA is an example of a tool already in place to mitigate the damage while boosting long sought-after intra-Africa trade.

The critical points:

• Africa is reacting to the global trade crisis, triggered by US trade tariffs, by seeking new markets for exports
• Intra-Africa trade is Africa’s best safeguard against global trade disruptions that will also boost local economic development
• While shipping patterns are in flux, Africa’s port infrastructure is in place to handle trade

Issued by In On Africa