Key African economies are set to stake out different approaches to interest rates in the coming weeks as they gauge the impact of US President Donald Trump’s new tariff proposals and their domestic influences on their economies and inflation.

“Upcoming monetary policy decisions across African central banks will be shaped by a common theme: the tension between easing inflation and persistent structural vulnerabilities,” according to Angelika Goliger, EY Africa chief economist. “While headline inflation is receding in several economies, the pace and scope of monetary easing will vary significantly, reflecting domestic political dynamics, external risks, and reform agendas.”

Countries such as Angola and Nigeria that are still battling high inflation are poised to hold interest rates. Others like South Africa, Egypt and Ghana, where inflation is low or easing, are expected to cut.

Here’s why eight African nations may cut interest rates and three hold:

Real Rates

The monthlong monetary policy blitz will start on Thursday with the Central Bank of Egypt probably lowering its benchmark interest rate by 100 basis points to 23% after two prior cuts. The country’s lofty inflation-adjusted interest rate and the downswing in price pressures present it with another opportunity to do so.

By the end of July both Ghana and South Africa will likely also reduce their borrowing costs.

In Ghana, a steep slowdown in inflation has opened the door for rate cuts. Its real rate is the highest it’s been since at least 2005, providing room from the “central bank to start easing as early as this month’s meeting, between 100 and 200 basis points,” said Jibran Qureshi, head of African research at Standard Bank Group Ltd. “The current account is in a surplus, gold exports continue to rise” and the cedi has appreciated almost 50% since April, he said.

South Africa’s monetary policy committee is expected to extend its rate cutting cycle and lower the benchmark rate by another 25 basis points to 7%, according to Citigroup Inc.’s economist for South Africa Gina Schoeman.

Research by Bloomberg Economics suggests the central bank’s current policy stance appears overly restrictive and inflation expectations two years ahead slipped to 4.5% in the second quarter, its lowest level in almost four years and where policymakers prefer to anchor them.

Still, EY’s Goliger warns the MPC may be wary of local and global inflation risks from the US reissuing threats to implement tariffs that could disrupt trade flows and currency stability for South Africa, which faces a 30% levy on its exports from August 1.

“This external uncertainty may limit appetite for aggressive easing in countries that are more exposed to global trade dynamics,” she said.

Softening inflation in Eswatini and the Democratic Republic of Congo could also see them decrease interest rates. For the Congo it would be its first cut since 2022.

Domestic Challenges

Recent unrest and weak private credit extension in Kenya and a technical recession in Mozambique will probably convince policymakers to opt for further rate cuts. Kenya has already adjusted its policy rate by 325 basis points to 9.75% and Mozambique by 625 basis points to 11% to stimulate their economies.

Lesotho’s MPC is also likely to reduce its policy rate to boost its economy that’s been devastated by Trump’s tariff threats. Its textile industry has come to a standstill because orders from the US, its largest export market, have dried up due to policy uncertainty. Trump has threatened to impose a 50% duty on the southern African mountain kingdom. On Tuesday Lesotho declared a “state of disaster” over soaring unemployment and mass job losses.

Elevated Inflation

The prospect for starting an easing cycle in Nigeria is more distant, as disinflation has not yet become entrenched, said Gergely Urmossy, a senior frontier-markets strategist at Societe Generale SA. Inflation has only cooled for two months and remains elevated at 23%, which may prompt the MPC to maintain its key rate at 27.5% for a third successive meeting. “We expect the central bank” to start an easing cycle in early 2026, Urmossy said.

Angola will probably also stand pat and keep its benchmark rate at 19.5% for a seventh time in a row.

Officials will want to assess the impact of an increase in public-transport fares by as much as 50% on inflation after the government raised diesel prices last week.

Malawi’s policymakers are also poised to leave their key interest rate unchanged at 26% due to foreign-exchange constraints and persistent price pressures.