The latest ‘Africa Trade Barometer’, which has been published yearly by financial services firm Standard Bank since 2022 and which tracks businesses' perceptions of the ease of trade in Africa, shows that trade-enabling infrastructure and business confidence are improving.

Macroeconomic indicators for the ten countries surveyed, which represent 66% to 68% of Africa's GDP, namely Angola, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda and Zambia, showed a varied picture of resilience and recovery.

The average business confidence index score across the ten countries increased to 65, up from 59, signalling growing optimism among surveyed businesses, and inflation declined in seven of the ten countries in 2025.

Over the past four years the ten markets surveyed saw average GDP growth of 4% a year, compared to the global average GDP growth rate a year of 3%.

The average real GDP growth rate for the ten countries was forecasted to rise to 4.3% in 2026, said Standard Bank Group business and commercial banking head of trade Philip Myburgh.

Seven of the ten countries also reduced their levels of sovereign debt during the past year.

Additionally, firms reported improvements across every major infrastructure category, including power, telecommunications, road, rail, ports and digital border systems.

This marks the first time since the Standard Bank Africa Trade Barometer’s launch that all infrastructure indicators have improved simultaneously, which reflects growing investment in logistics capacity and digital trade facilitation across the continent.

“In addition to the stabilising financial and macroeconomic environment, the big story is infrastructure. The question we ask businesses is how they would rate the quality of each type of infrastructure. For the first time, every infrastructure component improved year-on-year.

“The businesses surveyed indicated a significant rise in the quality of physical infrastructure as improvements in power supply and transport networks drove the average ratings up,” he said.

This trend also included trade facilitation and logistics infrastructure, as digital modernisation and strategic transport hubs enhanced the operational environment for businesses.

Digital payment methods continued to be the most commonly used tools for facilitating cross-border transactions among surveyed businesses at 78% of all cross-border sales and 79% of cross-border purchases during the past year, he said.

The broader surge in digital payments across Africa in 2025 was driven by the development of continental systems such as the operationalisation of the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System, which integrated with national switches to facilitate local currency settlement.

This growth was further supported by the harmonisation of regional fintech regulations, as passporting rights in the West African Economic and Monetary Union and the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa created unified regulatory territories that allowed fintechs to offer cross-border services without repetitive licensing, the report said.

Further, businesses directed the majority of their exports to the rest of Africa, which absorbed 59% of total outbound trade, supported by good trading relationships and simplified procedures.

“While businesses increasingly looked to Asian markets for partnerships owing to competitive pricing and the constraints of US tariffs, the deepening of regional ties and the rapid adoption of digital financial systems suggest that the foundations for intra-African trade are steadily strengthening,” said Myburgh.

Additionally, 60% of companies were optimistic about their economies and 83% of firms believe that their business's turnover will increase in the next year.

The increase in average business confidence indicates a period of recovery, supported by tangible improvements in physical infrastructure and proactive government support for trade in markets.

“As growing pressures continue to challenge operations, the resilience of these economies will depend on whether the current structural improvements can sustain the economic momentum witnessed in the survey,” he said.

A key challenge for Africa, which also represents an opportunity, is the $39-billion-a-year trade deficit it has with its trading partners.

Africa exported lots of its natural resources, but imported a large volume and value of manufactured and processed goods, said Standard Bank Group Business and Commercial Banking Africa region and offshore head Andrew Mashanda.

The deficit was driven in part by the structural problem of Africa exporting raw commodities and importing processed and manufactured goods. For a $4 cup of coffee, the farmer that produced the beans received only $0.05; hence the value addition of raw materials was being realised outside the continent, he said.

The trade deficit is also driven by the industrial gap in Africa, which is part of the reason countries import manufactured goods.

The industrial base in most of the ten markets is nascent, although many of the surveyed economies are building a more solid industrial base to drive growth; some of which is being driven by exports.

Further, as industries were formed, they served as catalysts for yet further industries, such as the chemical and fertiliser industries developing on the back of oil and gas in Nigeria, with similar moves in Uganda, he said.

Standard Bank aimed to support the development of businesses that could add such value and form thriving value chains, which would also increase trade, he added.

Africa used to be a source of instability in the world, but can move to being a source of strength for the planet by leveraging its natural resources to support the global energy transition and technology development, as well as produce valuable commodities locally.

Since the advent of Covid-19 forced many economies to look inward at their own resilience, and the recent fragmentation of trade, Africa has had to attract investment to develop its own industries.

“The stability in the macroeconomic and policy environments and the macroeconomic indicators show us that there are green shoots emerging. The Africa Trade Barometer shows that Africa is worthy of investment.

“We need to look at non-tariff barriers, trade flows and infrastructure constraints, but we have an opportunity to capitalise on the opportunity presented by the changes in global trade,” Mashanda said.