Climate variability and long-term climate change are increasingly shaping the performance and reliability of renewable energy systems worldwide. The 2024 Year in Review, released by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) finds that 2024- the warmest year on record, with global temperatures reaching around 1.55°C above pre-industrial levels - brought pronounced regional shifts in solar, wind and hydropower potential, alongside a 4% increase in climate-driven global energy demand compared with the 1991-2020 average.

Using four core energy indicators, wind and solar capacity factors, a precipitation-based hydropower proxy, and a temperature-derived energy demand proxy, the analysis shows that residual El Niño conditions, record ocean heat and long-term warming produced strong regional contrasts in energy outcomes in 2024.

For the first time, the report evaluates the skill of seasonal climate forecasts for energy indicators. Results indicate that forecasts - particularly from the ECMWF system - can successfully anticipate regional anomalies in solar energy potential and electricity demand months in advance. For example, forecasts issued in early summer 2024 correctly signalled unusually high energy demand and below-average solar performance across large parts of Africa.

Report by the International Renewable Energy Agency